Thiem Looking Good in Hamburg, But Here's My Real Tip for the Outright Winner

Yesterday Dominic Thiem tore through the stalwart that is Hungarian Marton Fucsovics 7-5, 6-1 to reach the Quarter Final on his favourite surface - the orange dirt.

Thiem who is a natural clay court player looks completely at home on the surface, always preferring to take a deep position behind the baseline while delivering blistering fore and backhands at his opponents. These are the same clay court skills and tactics that saw him defeat Nadal in Barcelona this year 6-4, 6-4. He has of course also reached the French Open final twice in two years due to his rock solid capabilities on the surface.

Source - Getty Images - Fabio Fognini - Monte Carlo ATP

Thiem conceded only two points behind his own serve while hitting through Fucsovics on 20 occasions. While Fucsovics also has the ability to hit winners, he was forced back way behind the baseline and peppered by the Thiem forehand, always struggling to deal with the Austrian, putting up a decent fight in the first set until conceding his final service game before a tie break. In the second he looked like a defeated opponent from the first game, only managing to take 1 game from the set.

Having said all that, you know I'm a guy all about outsiders right? So I am not going to disappoint you here. While Thiem is an understandable 6/4 to win the tournament, a dark horse nestled in third place is Fabio Fognini who is 10/1 odds to win Hamburg outright. Fognini is an excellent outside bet for several crucial reasons setting aside is very juicy odds.

Fognini has the fire power to out hit both Zverev and Thiem because he takes the ball incredibly early, almost on the half volley at times. This can neutralise Thiem's forehand because Fabio isn't the type to like to play too far behind the baseline. He can flatten out his fore and backhands while also possessing a highly effective drop shot (one of the best on tours). His ability to mix up the play is exactly what is needed to disrupt Thiem.

While the bookies have Thiem and Zverev as favourites due to their consistency this year I have been watching Fognini on clay earlier this year too. I don't have to cast my mind back far to remember his demolition of Nadal in Monte Carlo on clay before the French. Beating Nadal 6-4, 6-2 he went on to win that tournament. During that match he produced some quiet unbelievable tennis to shock Nadal. Take a look at the highlights below and enjoy the Italian Wizard's natural talent:

Fognini is built like a tank with sheer power in his back court shots while having one of the lightest touches at the net and with his said drop shot. While he doesn't possess the ideal height of a tennis player standing only at 5ft 10 inches and therefore the serving power, he more than makes up for it with the rest of his game.

Tip: Take Fognini as an Outsider to Win in Hamburg at 10/1