World Cup 2022 - We Need 18 More Goals!

Hello there!

Being someone who has a keen interest in Statistics, it's always fun and interesting to put some of the knowledge into practice and real life applications. In this case, I am referring to betting odds.

But before I begin, I thought I should put out a big and bold disclaimer that this is solely a textbook practice and it's not meant to encourage anyone to bet because statistics is always about probabilities and my analysis is just meant to be a fun exercise (and this means I could be way wrong!).

This post is a continuation of the earlier post so you might want to refer to it for background.
Post #1
Post #2
Post #3
Post #4
Post #5

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Predicting Total Goals In World Cup 2022

Let's look at the latest odds. I can only say WOW!

If you recall, at the halfway mark in Post #2, I said this:

This time, I am going to stick my neck out and say that "More than 165 Goals" has a good chance of happening.

With 14 goals in the last 4 matches, our tally is standing strong at 148 goals.

My ambitious call earlier for "More Than 165 Goals" seems to be the favourite now. The tricky question now is, whether we should my hedge my bets by covering the low possibility of "155 to 165 Goals" in the event we get low scoring matches ahead. After all, this is all about probabilities and anything can happen.

So let's take a look at the model.

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Where We Are

After 56 matches:

• Total Goals: 148
• Mean (average goals per match): 2.64
• Variance: 3.80

As there are a total of 64 matches, we are more than halfway through and there are 8 matches to go. Using the data of 56 matches played as a sample, we can apply lambda (λ), or mean, of 2.64. So the mean goals for the remaining matches would be 8 * 2.64 = 21.14.

So we are assuming the remaining goals for 8 matches (X) would follow a Poisson distribution with mean 21.14, i.e. X ~ Po(21.14).

Looking back on the betting odds:

• If we needed the total goals to be less than 155... Are we kidding? This is not going to happen. Anyway, that means we can only afford to have 6 more goals given the current tally is 148. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(X <= 8) = 0.01%.
• If we needed the total goals to be between 156 to 165, that means we want to have 7 to 17 more goals given the current tally is 148. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(7 <= X <= 17) = 21.78%.
• If we needed the total goals to be more than 165, that means we want to have 18 or more goals given the current tally is 148. P(X >= 18) = 78.21%.

Presenting these numbers in a table and including the betting odds in the earlier screenshot:

Total Goals	Probability	Converting to Odds	Actual Odds
Less than 155 Goals	2.47% -> 0.01%	8980	15.00 -> 50.00
155 to 165 Goals	52.84% -> 21.78%	4.59	1.60 -> 2.75
More than 165 Goals	44.69% -> 78.21%	1.28	2.30 -> 1.35

Comparing the odds by the model vs the betting odds, they are actually very similar, especially for the last option. The actual odds will tend to be lower due to the house advantage.

I have earlier stuck my neck out and call for "More than 165 Goals" and with the goals raining over the past few matches, it's looking very good now. As much I am not encouraging betting/gambling, I wonder if anyone has read my analysis and place some bets for the fun of it. With the current situation, I wouldn't recommend hedging the bets given the rate of success is 78%. Let's wait and observe the quarter finals, we only just need another high scoring match to seal this outcome.

Of course, the same caution applies.

• The model is based on the assumption that the goals follow a Poisson Distribution. (Which might or might not be true)
• I have used the sample mean based on the current 56 matches, which might or might not be reflective of the full 64 matches. If you use a different mean, the results would be different.

In conclusion, I will stick to my earlier call and remain status quo for this update! It looks set for a nail-biting finish and let's see whether we will end up below 165 or above 165 goals for this tournament!

With that, thanks for reading! Really appreciate it if you have gone this far. As usual, let me know any thoughts that you have!