World Cup 2022 - Time To Hedge The Bets?

Hello there!

Being someone who has a keen interest in Statistics, it's always fun and interesting to put some of the knowledge into practice and real life applications. In this case, I am referring to betting odds.

But before I begin, I thought I should put out a big and bold disclaimer that this is solely a textbook practice and it's not meant to encourage anyone to bet because statistics is always about probabilities and my analysis is just meant to be a fun exercise (and this means I could be way wrong!).

This post is a continuation of the earlier post so you might want to refer to it for background.
Post #1
Post #2
Post #3
Post #4
Post #5
Post #6

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Predicting Total Goals In World Cup 2022

With 10 goals in the last 4 matches, our tally is standing strong at 158 goals. That meant that the "Less Than 155 Goals" option is ruled out.

If you recall, at the halfway mark in Post #2, I said this:

This time, I am going to stick my neck out and say that "More than 165 Goals" has a good chance of happening.

My ambitious call earlier for "More Than 165 Goals" seems to be the favourite now. The tricky question now is, whether we should my hedge my bets by covering the low possibility of "155 to 165 Goals" in the event we get low scoring matches ahead. After all, this is all about probabilities and anything can happen.

So let's take a look at the model.

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Where We Are

After 60 matches:

• Total Goals: 158
• Mean (average goals per match): 2.63
• Variance: 3.63

As there are a total of 64 matches, we are almost done. Using the data of 60 matches played as a sample, we can apply lambda (λ), or mean, of 2.63. So the mean goals for the remaining matches would be 4 * 2.63 = 10.53.

So we are assuming the remaining goals for 4 matches (X) would follow a Poisson distribution with mean 10.53, i.e. X ~ Po(10.53).

Looking back on the betting odds:

• If we needed the total goals to be between 156 to 165, that means we only can afford to have a maximum of 7 goals given the current tally is 158. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(X <= 7) = 17.60%.
• If we needed the total goals to be more than 165, that means we want to have 8 or more goals given the current tally is 148. P(X >= 8) = 82.40%.

Presenting these numbers in a table and including the betting odds in the earlier screenshot:

Total Goals	Probability	Converting to Odds	Actual Odds
Less than 155 Goals	0.01% -> 0%	NA	50.00 -> NA
155 to 165 Goals	21.78% -> 17.60%	5.68	2.75 -> 3.50
More than 165 Goals	78.21% -> 82.40%	1.21	1.35 -> 1.23

Comparing the odds by the model vs the betting odds, they are actually very similar. The actual odds will tend to be lower due to the house advantage.

I have earlier stuck my neck out and call for "More than 165 Goals" and with the goals raining over the past few matches, it's looking very good now with 4 matches left. As much I am not encouraging betting/gambling, I wonder if anyone has read my analysis and place some bets for the fun of it. Earlier, I wouldn't recommend hedging the bets given the rate of success is 78%.

However, with just 4 matches and we need 8 goals, I would recommend hedging for the outsider scenario of 18% where these final matches would be low scoring. To put it simply, if tonight's match between Croatia and Argentina end goalless, we would be in some minor trouble as we would then need to find 8 goals from 3 matches.

In conclusion, with my earlier call and bets on "More than 165 Goals" with odds around 3 to 6, it's a good time to hedge off any potential losses under "155 to 165 Goals" at decent odds of 3.50. This also means I can enjoy the rest of the matches knowing a profit is guaranteed!

With that, thanks for reading! Really appreciate it if you have gone this far and have followed me on this journey of applying Statistics to betting odds. Who says Statistics are boring? :P

As usual, let me know any thoughts that you have!