World Cup 2022 - It's Raining Goals

Hello there!

Being someone who has a keen interest in Statistics, it's always fun and interesting to put some of the knowledge into practice and real life applications. In this case, I am referring to betting odds.

But before I begin, I thought I should put out a big and bold disclaimer that this is solely a textbook practice and it's not meant to encourage anyone to bet because statistics is always about probabilities and my analysis is just meant to be a fun exercise (and this means I could be way wrong!).

This post is a continuation of the earlier post so you might want to refer to it for background.
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Predicting Total Goals In World Cup 2022

Let's look at the latest odds. Finally we are getting some certainty! If you recall my earlier post I mentioned:

With 120 goals already on the tally, "Less Than 155 Goals" is definitely looking dangerous with every goal from now on.

And within the past 2 days, we saw a whooping 14 goals from 4 matches. With 134 goals on the tally, "Less Than 155 Goals" is looking almost impossible if you ask me. My ambitious call earlier for "More Than 165 Goals" seems to have a better chance now.

With 12 matches left, how does the model look?

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Where We Are

After 52 matches:

• Total Goals: 134
• Mean (average goals per match): 2.58
• Variance: 3.46

As there are a total of 64 matches, we are more than halfway through and there are 12 matches to go. Using the data of 52 matches played as a sample, we can apply lambda (λ), or mean, of 2.58. So the mean goals for the remaining matches would be 12 * 2.58 = 30.92.

So we are assuming the remaining goals for 12 matches (X) would follow a Poisson distribution with mean 30.92, i.e. X ~ Po(30.92).

Looking back on the betting odds:

• If we needed the total goals to be less than 155, that means we can only afford to have 20 more goals given the current tally is 134. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(X <= 20) = 2.47%.
• If we needed the total goals to be between 156 to 165, that means we want to have 21 to 31 more goals given the current tally is 134. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(21 <= X <= 31) = 52.84%.
• If we needed the total goals to be more than 165, that means we want to have 32 or more goals given the current tally is 134. P(X >= 32) = 44.69%.

Presenting these numbers in a table and including the betting odds in the earlier screenshot:

Total Goals	Probability	Converting to Odds	Actual Odds
Less than 155 Goals	19.39% -> 2.47%	41	3.00 -> 15.00
155 to 165 Goals	61.58% -> 52.84%	1.89	1.60 (same)
More than 165 Goals	19.03% -> 44.69%	2.24	6.00 -> 2.30

Comparing the odds by the model vs the betting odds, there's not much value in any of the bets. I think we can comfortably rule out the first option since a 2% chance with 12 matches left seems very, very unlikely to happen.

I have earlier stuck my neck out and call for "More than 165 Goals". Although the odds and models continue to favour the middle option, like I mentioned in the earlier posts, the final 12 matches have a chance of additional 30 minutes of extra time if they end as a draw at full time. More minutes of playing means more chance for goals.

Of course, the same caution applies.

• The model is based on the assumption that the goals follow a Poisson Distribution. (Which might or might not be true)
• I have used the sample mean based on the current 52 matches, which might or might not be reflective of the full 64 matches. If you use a different mean, the results would be different.

In conclusion, I will stick to my earlier call and remain status quo for this update! It looks set for a nail-biting finish and let's see whether we will end up below 165 or above 165 goals for this tournament!

With that, thanks for reading! Really appreciate it if you have gone this far. As usual, let me know any thoughts that you have!