IPL 2023 GT vs KKR Preview - Defending champs looking for perfect start

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Narendra Modi Stadium

Average first innings score: 161
Average first innings winning score: 172
Average powerplay score: 48
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd:40% / 55%

Team form GT vs KKR

GT: WW
KKR: WL

Recent meetings: IPL 2022 - GT won by 8 runs

Preview GT vs KKR

The pattern for Gujarat wins, both this season and last, is starting to feel a bit familiar. Bowl first, restrict a side to par or just below, then come out and lay a solid foundation before relying on 1 or 2 of your finishers to ease you over the line. Certainly that is how GT have won their first 2 games and at least in as far as chasing is concerned it's how they've won 10 out of the 11 matches in their relatively brief IPL history when batting 2nd.

The real question then remains how can you stop them? Well I guess winning the toss and putting them in might go some way to helping but actually the trend for the tournament so far is showing that for most sides there isn't as big an advantage of chasing as there might of been in previous years. Only Gujarat (twice) and RCB have won batting second at the time of writing and on all 3 occasions that was as a result of a below average first innings score.

Therefore, while the glory tends to go to the batsmen who finish things off in the chase, Gujarat's real strength lies in having a bowling attack that consistently keeps them within striking distance. Mohammed Shami is the man tasked with taking wickets in the powerplay and he does so consistently, Rashid Khan is a world class operator through the middle overs while Alzarri Joseph has bowled with great pace and accuracy at the death. The likes of Little, Pandya and others can then fit in around them.

KKR engineered the comeback of the season to date in their crushing victory over RCB last time out. At 47 for 3 and then 89 for 5 it looked as though the Knight Riders would do well to reach 160 before an inspired knock from Shardul Thakur who put on a century stand with Rinku Singh lead them past the 200 mark.

That partnership papers over the very obvious cracks in the top order with KKR once again shuffling their top 3 in search of a combination that can get them off to a start. Jason Roy has been brought in to offer them further options in that department but with the form of Rahmanullah Gurbaz and the fact that he is currently keeping wicket, you'd assume the only way to get Roy into the side would be to drop Tim Southee.

Varun Chakravarthy is certainly enjoying the IPL 2023 pitches more than the 4 used in last season's round robin stage. Rashid Khan did find a bit of spin here at the Narendra Modi stadium in the opening match of the tournament but I doubt it will grip to quite the extent that we saw at Eden Gardens the other night. By contrast KKR's seamers have taken just 1 powerplay wicket to date at the cost of nearly 10 runs an over so if the spinners aren't to be as effective it does raise question marks over how KKR will take the necessary wickets in this game.

GT vs KKR head to head

KKR bowling vs GT batting

Shubman Gill faces his former franchise and how KKR must wish they'd retained him! Tim Southee got him to knick off early when these 2 teams met last year while Shardul Thakur has done something similar in the past. However, Thakur has not bowled during the opening 6 overs for KKR this season with the Knight Riders relying on Umesh Yadav up front instead. In that regard Wriddhiman Saha's head to head record looks very strong.

Umesh Yadav vs Saha T20 head to head

It's also noticeable that neither Southee or Umesh have enjoyed bowling at the Narendra Modi Stadium before. Between them, they have combined figures of 1 for 110 from 7 overs!

If KKR's plan A this season is 'spin it to win it' then it's worth noting that neither of their front line spinners have ever dismissed Gujrat's 2 most experienced middle order players.

Narine and Varun vs Miller and Pandya combined T20 head to head stats

If that trend were to continue and GT have wickets in the bank coming into the end of the innings then KKR's death bowling will certainly be tested. To date, Shardul Thakur has been their main option in that regard while we've not seen Andre Russell at all. The big all-rounder can be expensive at the death but he does have a knack of picking up wickets. Pandya, Miller, Shankar and Tewatia have all been dismissed at least once by Russell in previous meetings.

Andre Russell vs GT's middle order T20 head to head

GT bowling vs KKR batting

KKR do have the advantage that Rahmanullah Gurbaz has more experience of facing Josh Little in T20 cricket than any other batsmen in the IPL, largely as a result of the amount of cricket that their respective nations have played against each other in recent years.

A few years ago, writing about an Irishman and an Afghan playing cricket together sounded like the start of a bad joke but now they are 2 of the emerging nations and key to cricket's hopes of expanding as a global game.

Josh Little vs Rahmanullah Gurbaz T20 head to head

Little's role against KKR could be particularly important given the issue's that their batsmen appear to be having against left-arm bowling at the moment. KKR have lost 6 wickets (all of them top 6 batsmen) to left-arm quicks in their opening 2 matches and managed to score just 72 runs from the 10 overs they've faced.

Batsman	Ave vs left-arm pace	S/R vs left-arm pace
Mandeep Singh	22.6	145.8
VR Iyer	21.9	117.7
N Rana	54.8	139.1
AD Russell	22.3	186.2
RK Singh	14.3	143.3
Rahmanullah Gurbaz	44.4	135.2

KKR's current top 6 career T20 stats vs left-arm fast medium bowling

There is nothing in the career stats above that suggests a fundamental weakness to left-armers. Mandeep Singh and Venkatesh Iyer look like the weak links but given their poor form to date, I think under-arm bowling would probably trouble them too!

It'll also be a game of cat and mouse as to when Andre Russell is sent in and whether Hardik chooses to hold Rashid Khan back for at least an over until that point. Russell has scored just 35 from the 33 balls he's faced before from Rashid in T20 cricket and the Afghan has dismissed him 3 times all in 15th over or later.

Rashid Khan all dismissals in T20 vs Andre Russell

---

All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
IPL head to head player stats
IPL player stats by venue
IPL stadium statistics.
Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and background images which are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free