The Decline of Major League Baseball

Disruption is happening all over the place. Part of this is due to technology while another can be attributed to demographics. Regardless of the cause, we are seeing billions dollar entities being completely steamrolled.

Of course, most are not aware, simply progress as if it is business as usual.

One such entity is Major League Baseball (MLB). Ah, the American pastime. Part of Americans, just like mom and apple pie.

Well, those days are long gone for many reasons. Pertinent to this article is the fact that we are going to see the next couple decades mark the end of MLB.

In short, it is a dying animal.

So let us go through what will take place and how this is unfolding.

Oldest Fans

Of the major sports, MLB has the oldest fan base. In fact, it isn't even close.

Here is a demographic breakdown.

Source

As we can see, more than half their fans are 55+. This does not bode well.

In comparison, we see the NBA at 25% and the NFL at 29%. That is a huge difference in terms of numbers.

This means that baseball's customers are going to be dying off.

Another comparison is the fact that MLB has only 24% of the audience is 34 or under. The NBA registers 45% of the fanbase is in that range.

How do you think that will look in another couple decades?

American Players

Another problem facing MLB is the fact that the American players are being reduced. While all sports have seem some penetration from other countries, nothing like baseball.

The challenge is the loss of players.

Decades ago, MLB lost the African-American player. You can count on two hands the number who now play in the majors.

At the same time, this is happening now to the white players. The biggest rise is coming from Latino players, especially those outside the United States.

If history is any guide, losing the players also means losing the viewers. As we can see, black viewers account for just 9% of the total for MLB.

Here is the NBA:

It is no surprise that African American fans comes in at 45%. Obviously the NBA appears to be well positioned going forward with the fanbase it has.

Baseball is not going to be so lucky.

Streaming Mythology

MLB is trying to sort out the broadcast rights.

The problem it faces is no different than what most are encountering. They are falling for the hype of streaming. Most of the broadcasting world believes this is the Golden Goose. As entities such as Disney and other broadcasters are finding out, this isn't the case.

To date, the streaming losses are into the billions. This is not looking like it will slow anytime soon.

MLB, like other sports, gets a lot of money from the broadcasters. They will likely replace this with their own direct service. After all, there is already the MLB application which allows people to get many of the games.

The problem is that it will not likely reach the tens of billions that are handed over in these television contracts. Right now, Amazon and Apple believe it is in their best interest to get in the game. However, if they do not see a bump in, say, Amazon Prime subscriptions, they will question the decision.

Either way, the numbers will go down as ratings tank. The Tampa Rays made news with the lowest playoff attendance in over 100 years. They could not even top 20,000 for a playoff game.

The bottom line is the demographics are working against MLB. We are moving into the attention economy and they are losing in this race. We know there are other options out there for people.

As the Boomers die off, a large chunk of the MLB fanbase will be departing. The numbers reveal they are not being replaced by the younger generations. This will eventually have a major impact.

This is another situation to watch as we enter the 2030s. By the middle of that decades, baseball could be a much different product with a much small fanbase.

---

What is Hive

Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha