Where the Ashes will be won and lost?

The greatest international sporting contest on the planet is due to start today!

The Ashes is the true test of English and Australian cricketers skill and temperament. Whatever has gone before and whatever might happen after against other opposition, pales into insignificance when held up next to a series that has been so fiercely contested for nearly 150 years.

England win the 2015 Ashes source shared under a CC license

Win and you will be forever remembered in the cricketing fokelore of your nation. Lose and you'll always have the tag of a player/team that couldn't quite cut it on the sport's biggest stage.

Here's where this year's Ashes will be won and lost

Stamina and injuries

This year's Ashes in England is not only taking place far earlier in the summer than recent series but it's being shoehorned into a space of just over 6 weeks.

From the 16 June to 31 July, players on both sides could find themselves required to play Test Match cricket on 25 out of 46 days. The gaps between the 2nd & 3rd Test and 4th & 5th Test offer just 3 days rest and recuperation for both sides and it's likely that the fast bowling stocks of England and Australia will be severely stretched as a result.

Jimmy Anderson has already stated that he'd be happy if his body can make it through 3 of the Tests, almost certainly indicating that he doesn't believe that he can get himself ready to play in those back to back matches. It seems very unlikely that the quicks on either side will be able to cope with such a heavy workload despite Pat Cummins stating that he plans to play in all 6 Tests (including the game against India that only finished on Sunday) this summer.

Of course, it may well come down to how much rest the bowlers are afforded during those matches by their batting units and how many of these games go the full distance. The onus in these early games will be for the batsmen on both sides to look to grind the opposition into the ground. As with any sport, it's amazing how much fitter everyone feels when they're on top versus the injury problems that tend to mount when a team is struggling.

At a cursory glance of the squads, you might be inclined to say that Australia have travelled fairly light on the fast bowling front with first choice picks Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood and Boland the only quicks in their squad for the first 2 matches.

Australian back-up bowlers currently playing in the County Championship - 2023 bowling stats accurate as of 15 June

However, Australia have plenty of other options plying their trade in county cricket at the moment and not just sat around the dressing room and carrying the drinks. It seems likely that 1 or 2 of these players will get a call-up at least to the squad at some point this summer and could ultimately play a big part in retaining the Ashes for Australia.

England meanwhile are facing something of an injury crisis. Jofra Archer who burst onto the international scence 4 years ago, firstly in the World Cup and then in the Ashes itself, will play no part in this summer. Ollie Stone, the promising yet perpetually injured quick, looks likely to spend most of his career in the physio's room. Mark Wood is included in the squad for the first Test but his fitness record is such that we know that he'll only be available for a couple of Tests at most.

England's plan over the last decade and several administrations has been to have a stable of fast bowlers, including those that can bowl with genuine pace. The absence of Archer and Stone, means that more often than not, England will need to stick to the tried and trusted combinations of Broad, Anderson and Robinson all of whom bowl around the 82mph mark. If they do wish to bring in that 'x-factor' then they'll be forced to look towards inexperienced players like Josh Tongue.

Conditions and Style of Play

Ben Stokes was quick to state in public that he wants flat pitches for his side to dominate the Australian attack with their new 'Bazball' style of play (note that 'Bazball is a term used in the media, you'll never hear anyone in the England dressing room use the phrase). This of course represents a change in the way England have approached previous home series where the onus has often been on creating conditions that favour England's seam attack and cause problems for Australia's top order who have historically struggled to over come the kind of lateral movement that is on offer over with the Dukes ball.

Of course, pitch manipulation is always dependant on a number of factors that can't be controlled. After a fairly wet cool spring, summer has finally arrived in the UK with temperatures this week pushing 30C (yes, that's hot for us Poms). As such, I think it's highly unlikely that we'll see the kind of green tops or cloudy conditions that many fans might associate with tours of England.

However, I don't think that flat pitches are as big a disadvantage to England's bowling attack as they might have been in previous years. Remember, this is an England side that despite a lack of genuine pace and match winning spin options, took 60 wickets on some very flat pitches in Pakistan this winter (Australia managed just 41 wickets during their 3 match tour in 2022), becoming the first touring side in Test history to win a series 3-0 in that country.

While much has been made of McCullum and Stokes' ultra-aggressive approach to batting, you can't win Test Matches without taking 20 wickets. In this sense, the real success, particularly of Stokes as the on-field captain, has been to find a way for England to do that, even when conditions haven't looked to be in their favour.

England's recording breaking score on the 1st Day of a Test Match, ultimately allowed them to push for victory on a very flat pitch in Rawalpindi

Of course scoring at such a quick rate allows England ample time to try and set-up a victory (England haven't drawn a Test since McCullum and Stokes took over). A prime example of this was in the first Test in Pakistan where England raked up an incredible 506 for 4 by the close of play on Day 1, the most runs ever scored on the first day of a Test Match. Pakistan followed that effort with a 500+ score of their own in the first innings and yet England won the match. In bygone eras of Test cricket it would have been very difficult for either side to force a result after the first innings and virtually impossible for the team that batted first!

While England have certainly set the bar very high with their attacking play, almost everyone else in Test cricket has followed suit to some extent. In fact, over the past 12 months only South Africa who are attempting to rebuild their batting unit following the retirement of so many key players, have not shown a marked increase in their run-rate in Tests.

Of course it will be interesting to see if Australia get drawn into playing fire with fire and look to match England's scoring rate. Make no mistakes, this is still an Australian side that can accumulate runs at a fast rate themselves (as the stats below show) but their key batsmen in particular, Smith and Labuschagne are better suited to accumulating at a more orthodox rate.

Test match scoring rates 31 May 2022 to 1 June 2023

Smith's dismissal against India in the 2nd innings last week came when he tried to force the pace and I'd imagine that England would be all too happy to see a man who has 11 Test Match centuries against them abandon the methods that have severed him well in previous Ashes series.

In fact, England's most recent Test defeat against New Zealand showed the value that grinding out hard runs can have and that their ultra-aggressive approach leaves time for both sides to get a result on the final day, regardless of what has gone before.

The real question, that keeps getting asked, is can England's batsmen continue their incredible scoring rate against an attack that has just delivered the World Test Championship?

England have managed wins playing their new style of ultra-agressive cricket against the likes of India, New Zealand, Pakistan and South Africa but the level of both opposition and expectation that comes with an Ashes series will be something else.

Highest Test match strike rates since 31 May 2022 (min 300 runs scored)

For the likes of Harry Brook and Ben Duckett, this will be their first Ashes series while Ollie Pope averaged just 11 against the same opposition in 2021/22 and despite fairing slightly better Down-under, Zak Crawley's position in this side is far from secure.

The fact that England have won 11 of their last 13 Tests should mean that this side comes into the series confident that they can succeed playing their brand of cricket but you can bet that Australia will be very keen to test that confidence in the early part of the series.

The other mantra of Bazball to date has been that no target in the 4th innings is ever too big. England won all 6 of the 7 Tests they played at home last summer when batting last, chasing down some truly remarkable targets in the process. As Test Match cricket becomes increasingly influenced by the white ball game, it's not impossible that we see sides choose to bat second simply because statistically their is an advantage to it in the shorter formats.

It'd be a bold move to win the toss and bowl first in any of these matches, short of it being a very damp/overcast day but one thing is for sure we are likely to get some very entertaining cricket in this series with some very tight finishes.

Players to watch for and key head to heads

The openers on both sides only have to look at the returns from the 2019 Ashes to understand the task ahead of them. While I wouldn't expect the new ball to be quite as dominant in this series, opening in England is always tough.

David Warner infamously scored just 95 runs from 10 innings in 2019 while Usman Khawaja ultimately lost his place (batting at 3) the last time Australia toured. If the likes of Broad, Anderson and Robinson can continue that dominance and get the Aussie middle order to the crease early, then it will go a long way to deciding the series.

Of course, this will be Warner's last Ashes series and if there is one thing that he's established over his long career, it's that he tends to be at his best when his back is against the wall. His personal duel against Stuart Broad will be hyped up by the media and could have an impact on both dressing rooms. He'll be desperate to leave these shores with a Test hundred having failed to reach the mark in 27 innings in England to date.

For England, Ben Duckett has the chance to make good on his undoubted talent when it matters most. A prolific run-scorer at youth level, he was fast-tracked into the Test side 7 years ago but due to a combination of off-field issues and a loss of form has had to wait to regain his spot. We know how good he is square of the wicket and we've seen glimpses of an improvement down the ground but that technique will be tested to the full against this Australian attack.

Despite England's recent successes, there is still a concern that this top 3 may come up short against a quality seam attack. Duckett, Crawley and Pope came through first class cricket playing in different positions than they are being asked to at international level. Will that ultimately come back to bite England?

This is arguably the first time since the 1950s that Australia can claim to have an all-rounder of equal or greater ability than England. In recent decades England have been blessed by the likes of Botham, Flintoff and now Stokes, all of whom have saved their best performances for the Ashes.

While Stokes will undoubtedly have a massive bearing on this series, question marks over his fitness and ability to bowl mean that Australia very much hold the upper hand when it comes to balancing their XI.

We saw in the Test against India last week the value of having a player in Cameroon Green who can contribute in all 3 facets of the game as he scored some gritty 2nd innings runs, took a couple of wickets and made some outstanding contributions in the field. At a bare minimum you'd expect him to continue to offer that, while there is always the chance that he could offer a performance akin to Botham '81, Flintoff '05 or Stokes '19 ...

Josh Hazlewood's recent injury concerns have lead to the emergence of Scott Boland who has looked like Australia's most consistent bowler since destroying England on his debut. England will undoubtedly seek to put pressure on Boland and knock him off his length. If they succeed it not only puts pressure on the Australian bowlers but on Pat Cummins himself whose dual role as captain and leader of the attack looks set to undertake its biggest test yet.

Best bowling strike rate in an innings in the history of Test cricket

Finally, we come to the spin options for both teams. England lost Jack Leach to a stress fracture in what was a big blow to their preparations. Another key improvement in England's performances under Stokes has been his man-management and captaincy of the spinners. Previous England captains have viewed slower bowlers at best as a 'Plan B" if the seamers fail but Stokes has made Leach a key component of this attack, to the extend that he was the only bowler to have featured in all Stoke's matches as captain up until his injury.

The return of Moeen Ali demonstrates the lack of depth in England's spin bowling reserves. Young Reehan Ahmed made an impact in Pakistan but England appear to have decided that he's not quite ready for this kind of contest while early season conditions mean that very few first class spinners have had the chance to state their claim for a spot.

You can bet that Australia will target Moeen who not only has a lack of recent red ball cricket to draw upon but also has a terrible Ashes record!

Moeen Ali's bowling stats in Ashes cricket

His opposite number Nathan Lyon continues to be a consistent and underrated operator at this level. The fact that England have just 2 left-handers in their anticipated top 7 vs Australia who will have 4 could be an advantage to the home side but Lyon will be confident that he has the numbers behind him to once again be a key factor in this series.

There's been plenty of speculation about England targeting Lyon in this series and because Australia have a genuine 5 man attack, they are almost forced to do so. If England allow Lyon to hold up one end and give Cummins the luxury of rotating 4 seamers from the other then it's going to be difficult for them to exert the kind of pressure that they'd like to. Whether they can pull it off is another question.

The great thing about Test cricket played over a 5 match series is that little moments between players, turn into extended battles which can ultimately define the outcome of the Ashes. We wait to see how those head to heads develop in 2023...

All stats extracted from cricinfo