'Twas the night before the Ashes

'Twas the night before the Ashes and across Australia's vast plain
Not a cricketer was texting, not even Tim Paine

The bats were hung in the dressing room with care
In hopes that DRS would not find a nick there

The players were nested all snug in their beds
While visions of tiny urns danced in their heads

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It took a whole blog to discuss the off-field problems that both teams are experiencing at the moment and the possible impact that will have on the outcome of this series. In this post though we'll try and stick more to the actual cricket and the big questions on the eve of the first Test.

Top order question marks for both sides

It'd be fair to say that neither side comes into this series with their opening combinations settled or in any great form.

Australia for their part have opted to stick with Marcus Harris whose 10 Tests to date have yielded just a couple of half centuries and a batting average of 23. He has played just 2 Sheffield Shield matches coming into the series and scored 137 in one innings while being dismissed cheaply in the other 3.

Partnering Harris will be veteran and fellow left-hander David Warner. Injury and the general lack of Test cricket that Australia have played over the last 48 months means that he has played just 3 Tests since the conclusion of the 2019 Ashes, a series in which he managed just 95 runs across 10 innings with Stuart Broad in particular causing him all sorts of problems.

England then will see this as an area where they can gain an advantage and potentially get the likes of Labuschagne and Smith to the crease early and hopefully back to the dressing room in good time too!

However, it's worth remembering that Warner's record in Australia vs his overall record in England is very different. The bullish opener has an incredible career average on his home tracks and with the Kokaburra ball offering less movement and the pitches more in his favour you would expect Warner to make more of an impact this time around in what is likely to be his final Ashes series down under.

Warner's record in Tests played in Australia

Of course, England aren't blessed with a particularly settled top order themselves. Rory Burns has been gritty and workman like in his approach at the top of the order and playing half your matches in England against the Duke ball and returning an average of 32 in your first 29 matches is not to be sniffed at (see above for Warner's failings in the same conditions).

Unlike many other English batsmen not just in this squad but over the years, Burns can also point to a good record against Australia with his 390 runs in 2019 making him the 3rd highest scorer in the series.

In that series, Australia worked to a plan threatening his outside edge early in his innings before reverting to a short-pitched atttack later on with the ultimate belief that Burns' unique stance with its many moving parts makes him vulnerable to a ball anywhere between hip and chest height - I'd expect to see this theory employed again on the bouncier tracks of Australia!

The man partnering Burns, Haseeb Hameed, came out of the cricketing wilderness this summer with the kind of hair that you'd expect from a man who had gone completely off radar for 5 years following his debut against India as a 19-year old. A couple of fifties against the same opposition this summer have done enough for him to keep his place although this is surely his biggest challenge to date.

The runs and influence that either sides number 3 can exert could be a defining factor in this series. Certainly there are weaknesses in the opening pairs but for Australia at least Labuschagne has probably been their most conistant batsman over the past couple of seasons and he may well dent England's hopes of making significant inroads even if they do manage to oust 1 or both openers cheaply.

By contrast, England have brought back Dawid Malan at number 3, a real sign of how desperately short they are of options at the top of the order. There will be those who point to the fact that the last time England toured Australia, Malan finished as their leading run getter including a century at the WACA. Those runs came on flat pitches from the number 5 position. I'm concerned about what Malan can offer at number 3 particularly when he comes to the crease with England having lost an early wicket.

If you were doing a head to head comparison of both sides you'd have to say that coming into this first match, Australia have the edge in regards the top order particularly given the run scoring feats of Labuschagne at 3.

Middle order maestros

The battle at number 4 will see the number 1 ranked batsman in the world (Joe Root) vs number 2 (Steve Smith). The winner of that particular contest could go a long way to deciding victory in the series overall.

Root needs a big series both as a a leader and a batsman. He has been on fire this year with 1455 runs at an average of 66.13 and 6 centuries. It's the 6 hundreds that are most notable for Root who in comparison to his peers at the very pantheon of Test batting has often been criticised for his lack of conversion.

Root has the opporunity to join the very small list of batsmen who have scored 7 or more centuries in a calendar year

England will need more of those match winning scores from Root but they'll also need others to more than chip in as well! Their last success down under a decade ago came off the back of some 'Daddy Hundreds' as Graham Gooch the batting coach at the time labelled them with the top 3 of Cook, Strauss and Trott grinding Australia's bowlers into the ground before the middle order including the likes of Pietersen, Bell and Collingwood would come and finish the job.

In between times England have struggled to put those kind of runs on the board anywhere they play but particularly in Australia and it's noticable that most of the experienced batsmen in this side have a poor record in Ashes matches away from home including Root.

By contrast Steve Smith has filled his boots against this England side the last couple of times they've met including in the 2017 series when he averaged over 130 - ridiculous numbers!

For England then, they'll know that they need to up their output while simulatenously restricting Australia's and in particular Smith's. So far England have come up with dozens of plans and tactics to try and get Smith but very few have succeeded as the stats show. Smacking him in the head as was the case with Joffra Archer at Lords in 2019 seemed to work if only in the sense that he had to retire hurt and miss the next match but otherwise England bring a very similar looking attack (Anderson, Broad, Woakes and Overton) to the one that Smith feasted on in 2017.

I guess England can hope that Smith can't possibly have such a major impact again and as is the case with all these Aussie batsmen, since the conculsion of 2019 Ashes, he has played just 5 Tests during which time he's made a single century. If England see similar modest (by his standards) returns from Smith over the next 5 Tests they would be very happy indeed!

Smith vs Root in Ashes Tests that have taken place in Australia

At 5 Australia have gone for Travis Head who held off Usman Khawaja whose weight of runs at domestic level have gotten him back in the reckoning. Head has a reasonable return in his first 19 matches of 2 hundreds and an average just shy of 40 but batting at number 5 on pretty flat pitches and with a strong top order above him, the selectors will be looking for Head to push that average closer to 50.

With Head joined by new keeper Alex Carey and young talent Cameroon Green in the lower middle order then England will see the chance to put pressure on a less established portion of the Australian batting line-up. However, the overiding question remains, how often can they get these guys in situations where the bowlers have the upper hand?

By contrast, you feel that England's middle order might need to dig them out of some tough situations on a more regular basis and in that regard the return of Stokes, a player who thrives on big match pressure situations is very welcome. However, if England are to pull off victory here and as alluded to above, they will need more than that from all their batsmen.

For too long, England's Plan B has been to let Stokes win them the game. Is it any surprise that the guy is mentally and physically shattered?

There has been a lot of talk about the positive impact on the dressing that the return of Stokes has had. I just hope that results in more players looking to follow his example of total commitment on the field of play rather than relief at the fact he's back to carry those who would rather not front up when the going gets tough - it's an Ashes tour, it's going to get tough!

It looks like England will go for Bairstow over Pope at number 6 which is a mistake. Bairstow, as I've said so many times, is vulnerable on both edges of the bat and as such at this level and this form of cricket, he is a walking wicket. Happy to be proved wrong but I think that this series might finally see England realise that Bairstow's days as a Test cricketer are over and he should focus soley on the white ball game.

Simarly for Jos Buttler, question marks still remain about his role in the Test side. He's shown glimpses of his ability in red ball cricket over the years but England have never really found a role for him and equally he's not managed to deliver as often as he'd like.

Buttler has suggested that's he's going to play with more freedom in this series. I'd suggest that Test cricket is all about adapting to the situation so making pre-series predictions about how you're going to play doesn't fill me with a huge amount of confidence that one of the senior England players is set to deliver.

Bowling options

Australia have opted to stick with the under fire Mitch Starc whose returns in recent Tests have been poor. The advantage that Australia have in that regard is that Starc offers something different with his left-arm action as well as a bit of an x-factor. He's also key to helping establish some rough outside the right handers off-stump for Lyon to take advantage of later in matches.

Add to that the fact that the 2nd Test is the pink ball Test in Adelaide where Starc should excel with his late swing and it's easy to see why the selectors have stuck with him despite Jhye Richardson making a very compelling case for an Ashes debut.

England by contrast have bigger questions and decisions to make. The return of Stokes gives them the option to play a front line spinner should they wish to with Jack Leach largely being side-lined last summer as England struggled to balance their side without a genuine all-rounder.

There is talk that should the pitch be a little green and the skies a little cloudy as the previous weather and future forecast suggests it might, that England will go with an all seam attack once again. That represents a high risk move in my opinion and perhaps in some ways is the easier option should captain and coach not want to tell one of Broad or Anderson that they are not playing the first Test.

England were hoping to come into the series with a battery of fast bowlers including Archer, Stones and Wood but are ultimately left with just the later and must now manage his fragile body through a 5 match series. That being said the glut of injuries and decision to rotate some of the more established bowlers has lead to Ollie Robinson getting a chance and he looks like a player that is well suited both to Test cricket in general and Australian conditions.

Personally, I'd be tempted to throw in Wood now alongside Anderson and Robinson who have formed a good new ball combination + Jack Leach. That gives England a much better balance to their side and if they do want to rotate with Wood in particular then bringing in a boweler who offers more seam and swing for the 2nd Test, under lights (part of it) at Adelaide with the pink ball seems like the better option.

Captain vs Captain

The final battle will be between the leaders themselves.

There always seem to be question marks over fast bowlers as captains and Pat Cummins does have added pressure to perform in this series both as a leader and the number 1 ranked bolwer in the world.

While Cummins experience in the role is nowhere near that of Root (see below) his head to head match up against the England captain as a bowler is one that he has dominated in recent meetings and could yet decide the series.

Take nothing away from Root and his achievements this year but there has been some fairly average bowling against him. Cummins will hit length or just back of a length on off stump and move the ball a little bit with Root being particularly vulnerable to the ball that nips back as Cummins has shown so often by castling the England captain.

The main argument against using bowlers as captains seems to be that they'll need to focus on their individual performance and that of the team while out on the field. There is an element of truth about that but from Root's perspective this isn't likely to be an easy series. How often will he need to come to the crease at 20 for 2 (or worse) and look to rebuild his team's innings? There is not a lot of down time for a captain at number 4 who has such a weak top order.

By contrast Cummins will be thinking that the likes of Smith et al can give him at least a couple of days per Test with his feet up in the dressing room while his opposite number scratches his head working out a way to get rid of batsmen who have dominated his bowling attack in recent times.

For Cummins there is far less to lose, thrown in at the deep end as a result of Paine's sudden and unexpected resignation his reputation can really only be enhanced in this situation. In comparison Root will enter this series knowing that he ia about to overtake Cook as the player to lead England in more Tests than anyone else and yet over that long period he has failed to deliver that really big series win that would define his captaincy.

Before him England's long-term Test captains of the 21st century have all achieved marque series wins either away from home and or in the Ashes. Think Cook in India, Strauss in Australia or Vaughan regaining the urn in 2005. To date Root has yet to achieve that crowning glory, could this be his moment?