IPL 2024 MI vs RCB Preview - Now is the time

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Wankhede Stadium IPL records

Pitch stats from the 10 most recent IPL matches played at the Wankhede Stadium

Team form MI vs RCB
MI: LLLW
RCB: LWLLL

Recent meetings: IPL 2023 - MI won by 8 wickets, RCB won by 8 wickets

Weather

General Forecast: Dry and Clear
Chance of dew: Moderate to High

Preview MI vs RCB

We're not quite at the stage of the season where we can call this a must win game for both these teams but it's fair to say that their chances of making the playoffs rest on them finding some form and finding it soon.

MI opened their account with a win against DC at the weekend. It was a far from perfect performance but that won't bother the under pressure Hardik Pandya too much. Rohit Sharma got Mumbai off to a flying start before their innings stalled a little in the middle overs. Tim David then played a very handy knock to get things back on track for a 200+ score before Romario Shepherd heaved 32 from the final over.

Just based on the stats above, you can see how important that 1 over was. Only 2 sides had won at the Wankhede batting first in the previous 11 IPL games played here and they recorded scores of 214 and 218 respectively. MI were on course to get about that (perhaps just below) going into those final 6 deliveries.

It was also a great example of how some of the data around match-ups can be misleading. Prior to that final over, Nortje had bowled 9 deliveries to Romario Shepherd in T20 cricket and conceded just 3 runs. If he had gotten anywhere close to achieving that in the final over of this match then I suspect DC would be celebrating a 2nd win of the season.

In fact, RCB can testify to just how important those final few overs are in getting a total that is out of reach of the chasing team. They'd built themselves a fantastic platform with an opening stand of 125 against RR but despite having 9 wickets in hand, they added only 58 runs in the final 6 overs. Against one of the weaker bowling attacks in the competition, Rajasthan managed to knock that off with relative ease.

The 2 games between these sides last season also show the importance of first innings runs. There was a nice symmetry between those matches where the home team won by 8 wickets with 21 and 22 balls to spare respectively.

Looking at the pitch stats and the fact that there is a strong chance of dew developing as the game progresses then this will be a win the toss and bat 2nd match.

We also saw in the opening game of IPL 2024 here at the Wankhede that the new ball will move around a bit. Utilising that movement will be key especially as this match involves the 2 teams who have taken the fewest powerplay wickets this season (MI 5 wickets, RCB 4 wickets).

MI vs RCB head to head

RCB bowling vs MI batting

The noise around Rohit Sharma losing the MI captaincy might well die down a little now that the team have their first win on the board. However, it's also worth remembering that Rohit hasn't really had a good season for MI for some time. Just 3 half centuries since the start of the 2021 season, a period in which Mumbai haven't won the IPL and haven't really looked likely to.

Rohit T20 head to head vs Mohammed Siraj

So far in IPL 2024, without the weight of the captaincy, Rohit has looked fluent and aggressive at the top of the order. His 99 runs in the powerplay at a strike rate 190.4 is better than all but a handful of top order batsmen so far. With MI's powerful middle and lower order, if he continues to get them off to fast starts then winning scores will be a regular occurrence.

Mohammed Siraj was brilliant in the powerplay last season but has struck just once in that phase of the game this season while going at nearly 12 an over when the filed restrictions are in place. Reece Topley has performed far better over the last couple of matches and you only have to cast your mind back to last week to consider the damage that an overseas left-armer can do on this pitch against the MI top order.

Bowler	Bowling Average	Economy rate
AS Joseph	88.5	11.1
Mohammed Siraj	41.6	9.1
RJW Topley	55.0	13.2
C Green	35.5	8.9
Yash Dayal	86.0	7.8

RCB pace bowlers used in IPL 2024, T20 bowling records at the Wankhede Stadium

Topley and the RCB opening spell in general is likely to be key because if they don't make inroads into this powerful MI batting line-up then I fear their lack of specialist spinners and death bowlers will be subject to some real punishment here at the Wankhede, as has been the case on previous visits.

MI bowling vs RCB batting

It's the same old problems for this RCB side. They've struggled to really dominate opposition with the bat since Chris Gayle departed and they became reliant on Kohli to bat through the innings. The issue with that is that a guy scoring at 8 or 9 an over these days isn't going to hurt you and RCB don't have the bowling attack to think that they can regularly win games with par scores.

Will Jacks career T20 record in the powerplay

As I've mentioned before, I'm not really sure why Will Jacks has been left to carry drinks this season when you consider not only his prowess in the powerplay but the complete lack of form that Maxwell and Green have demonstrated. RCB could do with a player who will look to take on the bowling from the off and Kohli's best season's in the IPL have come when paired with that style of batsman at the top of the order.

RCB might be inclined to give their failing batting line-up one more go simply because of how good their records are at the Wankhede.

Batsman	Batting Average	Strike Rate
V Kohli	64.0	150.9
F du Plessis	46.5	132.4
C Green	76.3	172.2
GJ Maxwell	36.5	178.0

RCB batsmen career T20 records at the Wankhede

The 2 big questions for MI will continue to be

1. When to bowl Bumrah
2. Whether to bring in a slow left-arm bowler against this RCB team

The 2 questions are actually interlinked when you consider that Kohli and du Plessis both favour pace on the ball and both have decent records against Bumrah.

I would still argue that a player of Bumrah's class should open the bowling no matter what the match-up. He has as good a chance of anyone of making that initial break through and RCB's middle order looks so fragile at the moment that MI could go a long way to winning the game with a good opening spell.

Maxwell T20 head to head record vs Bumrah

At the same time we've seen how other sides have utlised left-arm spin against this right-hand dominant RCB top order so Shams Mulani or Kumar Kartikeya will surely be considered for recalls.

Equally, Bumrah has an excellent record against some of RCB's middle order. On a pitch that should see high scoring once again, his 4 overs could well be the defining factor if this match descends into a bit of a slog fest.

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All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
IPL player head to head records
IPL player records by stadium
IPL stadium records.
Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and highlights within GIFs which are not intended to infringe copyright- read full disclaimer. Background images are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free.