IPL 2023 LSG vs MI Preview - winner takes all

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Ekana Stadium

Average first innings score: 143
Average first innings winning score: 151
Average powerplay score: 38
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd: 50% / 33%

Team form LSG vs MI

LSG: WLNLW
MI:WWLWW

Recent meetings: IPL 2022 - LSG won by 36 runs and LSG won by 18 runs

Preview LSG vs MI

While it's by no means a mathematical certainty, the winner of this fixture would be all but through to the playoffs next week and better than that would leave themselves in with a decent shout of a top 2 finish, particularly after CSK's slip up against KKR on Sunday night.

Mumbai continued their fine form at the Wankhede by sweeping aside defending champions Gujarat Titans in front of their jubilant home fans. The only blotch on the scoresheet from that match was the cameo innings from Rashid Khan. Gujarat looked likely to be bowled out for sub 120 with 4 or 5 over to spare to but thanks to some late order fun from wristy Afghan, went on to reach a total of 191 off their 20 overs.

While that innings never threatened to take away MI's win, it did drastically shift the potential bump in net run-rate that Mumbai looked to be on course for. With RCB's thrashing of the Royals on Sunday taking them to a positive NRR, MI are the only side currently in the top 6 that are left with a negative net-run rate. Will that cost them come the final reckoning?

LSG meanwhile got a very welcome victory against SRH to get their season back on track. After a slow start and on a wicket that didn't look easy to score on, Nicolas Pooran who has a career T20 strike rate of 160+ against slow-left arm bowling, took advantage of being presented with a very early Christmas present in the form of a Abhishek Sharma, who he proceeded to whack 31 runs from in the 16th over and guide his side to victory.

We know that the pitch at the Ekana Stadium is likely to be very slow and very low. LSG haven't enjoyed success here all season with no win in their last 4 games at home. Meanwhile for MI and their powerful batting unit, this wicket will throw up an entirely different challenge. Can they adapt to the conditions and recalibrate on a pitch where 140-150 could well be a winning score?

Statistic in IPL 2023	at the Ekana Stadium	at the Wankhede Stadium
Ave. 1st innings score	143.2	197.5
Ave. winning score	151.3	216.0
Balls per 6	24.8	11.8
Ave. death overs score	42.1	62.3

Key pitch stats for the Ekana vs the Wankhede Stadium in IPL 2023

MI have generally benefitted from playing on the faster, truer decks of the Wankhede as well as some pitches in away fixtures including in the likes of Mohali, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad. To date, the only games they've played on pitches comparable to today's were away at Delhi where MI got their first victory of the season with a scrambled single off the last ball; and then against CSK where their batting unit failed and they were comfortably defeated.

This match then looks likely to be a test of Mumbai's true title credentials...

LSG vs MI head to head

MI bowling vs LSG batting

MI have generally been reliant on left-arm bowlers at the top of the order this season but they may need adapt that tactic given that both LSG openers have excellent records against that particularly type of bowler.

Mayers and de Kock T20 career stats vs left-arm fast-medium bowling

In fact, the modus operandi for teams in the powerplay at the Ekana Stadium this year has been to bowl spin. On average, 33.3% (or 2 overs) of each powerplay has been bowled by spinners so far in matches played at Lucknow in IPL 2023 and that stat is only growing, with almost half of the the PP overs (47%) bowled by slow bowlers in the last 3 games played here.

Unsurprisingly given the pitches that MI have been bowling on this season, they've not used spin very often in the powerplay, delivering just 10 overs (13.9%) of it in that phase of the game.

Piyush Chawla T20 career powerplay bowling stats

Most recently, it's been Piyush Chawla that has been used as a spin option in the powerplay when MI have felt that either the conditions or the opposition (as was the case when Chawla opened the bowling against RCB) have demanded it. However, they'll probably want to strengthen their spin options to ensure that they can have slow bowlers available throughout the innings and may well look at a recall for Hrithik Shokeen who might also be a powerplay option against the 2 left-handers of LSG.

Stoinis, Pooran and Hooda combined IPL 2023 batting records at the Ekana Stadium

The Ekana Stadium has not been a place where LSG's powerful middle order batsmen have enjoyed themselves. Deepak Hooda has already paid the price for his failings this season and while Pooran and Stoinis continue to contribute away from home, don't be too surprised to see the likes of Badoni and Mankad take on greater responsibility in these conditions.

LSG bowling vs MI batting

LSG have the advantage of a double pronged wrist spin attack and against this opposition and in these conditions they look likely to play a major factor in the outcome of the match.

Mishra T20 head to head vs Rohit Sharma and Ishan Kishan

The advantage of having 2 wrist spinners is that they can have at least one operating for almost the entirety of the innings. Generally speaking, Mishra has been used earlier on and that would certainly benefit the match-up against MI's openers, whereas Ravi Bishnoi can be held back, often until the 2nd half of the innings. With his previous success against Sky, then expect him into the bowling as soon as the form batsman of the tournament steps onto the outfield.

Bishnoi T20 head to head vs Sky

One further area of concern for MI will be the potential lack of depth to their batting. That has not been exposed of late given the magnificent form of their top 6 but on this wicket, a useful cameo from someone at 7 or 8 might prove the difference. Might they reconsider the likes of Arshad Khan or Tristan Stubbs to offer a couple of overs with the ball and some further hitting power towards the end?

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All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
IPL head to head player stats
IPL player stats by venue
IPL stadium statistics.
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