IPL 2023 GT vs RR Preview - last year's finalists in rehearsal for another playoff showdown?
Key match stats
Pitch Stats – Narendra Modi
Average first innings score: 163
Average first innings winning score: 172
Average powerplay score: 48
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd: 38% / 57%
Team form vs
GT: WLWW
RR: WWLW
Recent meetings: IPL 2022 GT won all 3 matches by 7 wickets, 7 wickets and 37 runs
Preview
A replay of last year’s final and looking at the performances of both franchises again so far this year, a potential dress rehearsal for at least the playoffs in 2023. If that is to be the case, Rajasthan would dearly love a win against the Titans having been beaten fairly comprehensively in all 3 encounters with them last year.
Both Rajasthan and Gujarat achieved last gasp victories in their most recent matches to make it 3 wins from 4 and victory again here for either side would essentially put them half way towards reaching the knockout phase in May.
Rajasthan can be particularly pleased with their win away in Chennai (the first time they've won their since 2008) on a pitch that their batsmen never quite came to grips with and defending a total that was only par or slightly above.
I actually had the Royals down as favourites to win this year’s IPL until they lost Prasidh Krishna through injury but to date they’ve managed to make up for his absence via the collective strength of their squad.
Adam Zampa made a rare IPL appearance in Chennai as Rajasthan went in with 3 front line spinners, a decision that was ultimately vindicated not only during the middle overs when the 3 of them strangled the scoring but also at the death. Anticipating CSK’s likely late charge against pace, they were able to hold Ashwin, Chahal and Zampa back to bowl within the final 5 and when Dhoni and Jadeja did finally start playing some shots against the seamers, they’d left themselves too much to do.
The Titans meanwhile made a bit of a meal out of their victory over a very average Punjab side. Shubman Gill and Sai Sudharsan have had plenty of praise heaped on them in recent weeks and months but showed a degree of naivety in allowing the match to drift towards what was ultimately a tense finish. One of the batsmen really should have taken the lead on looking to score a bit quicker through the middle portion of the game.
From what we’ve seen so far at the Narendra Modi Stadium, this should be a high scoring game. Only the M Chinnaswamy is seeing more 6s struck than here in Ahmedabad so it will be a test of what are 2 of the best performing bowling attacks in IPL 2023.
At the same time, the recent trend here is for teams to win chasing. That is in part a result of Gujrat's overall strength when it comes to batting 2nd and it certainly plays to their advantage to have conditions that favour their ability to hunt down scores. By contrast Rajasthan have been more successful batting first of late so it'll be a fascinating toss to see whether captains choose to play to their perceived strength or look to exploit their opponents perceived weakness.
GT vs RR head to head
RR bowling vs GT batting
Trent Boult missed the win against CSK with what was described as “a niggle” so RR will hope to have him back for this match.
Boult took 1 for 14 here in the final against the Titans last spring and has otherwise been economical in previous visits to the Narendra Modi. Prior to that fixture he’s also dismissed Saha twice and Shubman Gill once in previous meetings and both batsman are currently striking at under 100 against the left-arm Kiwi.
Trent Boult IPL bowling record at the Narendra Modi Stadium
Restricting the scoring of these Gujarat batsmen is also something that Yuzvendra Chahal has done well in previous meetings and given Gujarat’s rather lax play during the middle overs of their previous match against PBKS, the Royals will certainly be targeting that as a period of the game that at the very least they can limit the Titan's scoring.
Chahal T20 head to head against GT's likely top 5 (Gill, Saha, Sai Sudharsan, Pandya and Shankar)
Meanwhile Jason Holder has a very good head to head record against Hardik Pandya whom he has dismissed 3 times in T20 cricket over the last 18 months bowling into the pitch and getting Hardik to hit cross batted shots. The Gujarat captain is yet to find any form with the bat this season and the ideal situation for Rajasthan would be to get through the GT middle order and force their finishers in earlier than they’d ideally like.
All T20 dismissals Holder vs Pandya
In regards those finishers, Gujarat have continued to show their prowess at the death with an average run-rate in excess of 12 during the last 5 overs. Rajasthan’s seamers got hit for 36 in the last 2 overs against CSK and I can imagine that Miller and Tewatia will be looking to do some similar if they are afforded the platform for.
GT bowling vs RR batting
Jos Buttler is having another strong IPL campaign and is definitely the key wicket in this Rajasthan order. He has an excellent record against this strong Titans seam attack not to mention that he scored a century at this stadium in the playoff match against RCB last spring.
Gujarat pace attack (Shami, Joseph, Pandya, Dayal & Little) T20 head to head vs Buttler
I've no doubt that we'll see the Royals look to be particularly aggressive in the powerplay again and when you look at their collective head to head records against Rashid Khan, history suggests they will need to target other bowlers before he comes into the equation. You'd anticipate Rashid will be a factor in any match but his record against the batsmen in this Rajasthan team is particularly good with a strike rate of 16 and economy of under 6 an over.
| Batsman | T20 dismissals by Rashid | Average vs Rashid | Strike Rate vs Rashid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buttler | 4 | 12.5 | 69.4 |
| Jaiswal | 1 | 13.0 | 144.4 |
| Samson | 1 | 81.0 | 97.6 |
| Padikkal | 2 | 9.0 | 78.2 |
| SO Hetmyer | 4 | 16.0 | 128.0 |
| Holder | 2 | 6.5 | 130.0 |
| Ashwin | 2 | 4.0 | 100.0 |
Alzarri Joseph has taken on the role of specialist death bowler for Gujarat in this year's IPL and is performing very well. To date, he's taken 4 wickets during that phase of the game and is bowling with an economy rate of just 7.3.
Joseph vs Hetmyer T20 head to head
It'll be a crucial match up between Joseph and fellow West Indian Shimron Hetmyer. At the time of writing, no batsmen had scored more runs during the final 5 overs than Hetmyer (123 runs at the death in IPL 2023) who is scoring at a strike rate of 189.2 during that period.
All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
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