IPL 2023 GT vs DC Preview - Titans path to the playoffs looks assured

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Narendra Modi Stadium

Average first innings score: 192
Average first innings winning score: 207
Average powerplay score: 45
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd: 25% / 75%

Team form GT vs DC

GT: WWWLW
DC: LWWLL

Recent meetings: GT won by 6 wickets

Preview GT vs DC

Gujarat Titans come into today's match off the back of some great form and knowing that a win against bottom placed Delhi Capitals would all but guarantee a place in the playoffs.

However, as we've seen with results over the weekend, there is no such thing as an easy game in the IPL. In fact, defeats to CSK and RR have in some ways kept the league alive. Had those 2 teams one their corresponding fixtures then we'd be seeing a top 4 or 5 breaking well away from the chasing pack. Instead, what we may see is a GT side going 4 points clear of 3rd place and strengthening their grip on one of those coveted top 2 positions and an easier route to the final.

After some scratchy form early in the season that resulted in defeats to KKR and RR at home and some fairly unconvincing victories against PBKS and LSG, the Titans have really stepped it up in their last 2 outings obliterating the Knight Riders and Mumbai Indians.

Finding form at the right time is the hallmark of any great team and GT seem to be slipping through the gears nicely with 3 straight wins on the bounce. If I were going to be concerned in anyway about GT's current line-up, it would be that they are very right-hand dominant and potentially have a weakness against spin bowling on slower pitches.

Opponent	Venue	Spin Econ	Pace Econ
RR	Sawai Mansingh	7.3	7.0
LSG	Narendra Modi	8.7	9.2
MI	Wankhede	8.6	10.2
SRH	Narendra Modi	8.7	9.2
RCB	M Chinnaswamy	9.2	9.3

GT final 5 matches and venue stats

However, of their last 5 matches, it's only likely to be the game against Rajasthan in Jaipur where this weakness will be tested. That is at least that is until they reach the playoffs where their first (potentially only) qualification game will take place at the MA Chidambaram Stadium. Get through that test and it's back to the Narendra Modi for the final. It's no surprise then that Gujarat are now firm favourites to defend their title and baring a terrible loss of form they are set to reach the playoffs at a canter.

Delhi meanwhile remain rooted to the bottom of the table after losing to fellow strugglers SRH at the weekend. It was a game in which DC certainly had their chances but it was symptomatic of 2 squads that have failed to gel and find a winning formula that the Sunrisers ultimately found 1 or 2 more individual performances to see them over the line.

The Capitals have multiple problems but in the context of IPL 2023 and the massive scores that we are seeing this year then their primary issue is putting competitive totals on the board. Their average score this year is the lowest in the league and some 20 runs shy of anyone other than the Sunrisers. They are also the only team that has failed to pass 200 so far in IPL 2023.

Team	Average score	200+ scores
CSK	188.3	4
DC	153.8	0
GT	175.3	2
KKR	182.1	4
LSG	179.5	3
MI	180.8	2
PBKS	174.8	3
RR	187.5	3
RCB	180.1	2
SRH	158.9	1

Average scores and numbers 200+ scores by team in IPL 2023

Here at the Narendra Modi and against this powerful GT batting line-up then DC are almost certainly going to need to reach that 200 mark or chase it to have any chance of winning and keeping their very slim playoff hopes alive.

GT vs DC head to head

DC bowling vs GT batting

Axar Patel has been DC's most consistent performer with both bat and ball so far this season. His role against the aforementioned top 4 for GT, all of whom are right-handers, could be crucial in trying to restrict the Titans power hitters getting a big total. He also has a very good IPL record here at the Narendra Modi Stadium.

Axar Patel IPL bowling stats at the Narendra Modi Stadium

At the same time, Axar is likely to have to wait his turn while the Capitals seamers seek to extract the kind of lavish movement early on that we've seen the likes of Mohammed Shami and Hardik Pandya deliver in both GT's most recent home games.

DC have no shortage of options who could look to exploit those new ball conditions but can they find the right combination? In their defeat against SRH, they opted for 4 x right-arm fast-medium bowlers, including the all-rounder Mitch Marsh. He comfortably out performed the 3 frontline seamers who went for a combined 1 for 113 from their 9 overs.

Khaleel Ahmed T20 head to head vs Hardik Pandya

DC have plenty of left-armers to choose from but we've not seen either Khaleel Ahmed or Chetan Sakariya since the early part of the season. Surely against this opposition that will have to change ...

GT bowling vs DC batting

DC's middle order has offered very little all season so the onus in this match will be on the top order making it through what is likely to be a very challenging opening spell from Mohammed Shami and friends.

Shami T20 head to head vs Warner

Rashid Khan has a bit of a point to prove after being carted all around Eden Gardens by fellow Afghan Rahmanullah Gurbaz, finishing with figures of 0 for 54 from his 4 overs against KKR. The wrist spinner has an exceptionally good record against this DC squad so I wouldn't be surprised to see him bounce back in this game.

Rashid Khan combined T20 head to head stats vs current DC squad

One fun fact is that Rashid has never bowled against David Warner in a competitive T20 match. The 2 were of course long time teammates at SRH up until a couple of seasons ago and while Rashid has spent many years playing for Adelaide Strikers in the Big Bash, Warner's international commitments have generally limited his participation in Australia's own T20 franchise league.

There has been much talk about potentially moving Axar Patel up the order and giving him greater time at the crease to influence the game. While you can see the rational in that thinking, the concern that DC will have is that their lower order is already so weak that if they do promote Axar then they could leave themselves scratching around for any runs during the death overs.

Axar Patel death over batting vs all other DC death over batting in IPL 2023

DC already have by far the worst death over batting stats in IPL 2023 and come to a ground where sides have been scoring at just shy of 12 an over during the final 5. Axar himself looks like the only player in the Capitals middle to lower order capable of regularly finding the boundary during that phase of the game.

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All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
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IPL player stats by venue
IPL stadium statistics.
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