How to pick your squad for the start of the Fantasy Premier League season?

With the start of the new Premier League season less than a fortnight away, it's time for FPL managers across the world to make the final tweaks to their squads.

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Finding a successful starting 15 is perhaps the biggest challenge of the game. As is often the case in real sport contests, you can't win a league in the first few weeks but you can certainly go a long way to losing it and Fantasy Premier League is no different if you get things wrong early on.

With no recent/meaningful data or information to go on, it's no great surprise that most managers go with the tried and trusted in these early stages.

In that regard, I've created 3 squads below that incorporate various methods of ascertaining good picks for a start of season squad and then a 4th 'ultimate squad' that tries to incorporate the previous 3.

Best Points Per Pounds Squad

I've created the best points per pound team in previous seasons too and alongside keeping an eye on how the early season fixtures have fallen, it does give a good indication of players who are value for money and therefore worth consideration.

The formula to get this 15 is quite simple. Total points in 22/23 FPL season divided by starting price for the 23/24 season.

So without further ado, here it is...

The good news is that if you want to be really lazy with your squad selection then you can actually submit this as your starting 15 for the 23/24 season with the total cost coming in at £98 million and no more than 3 players from any one EPL team.

Of course, there are several reasons why you might not wish to...

The likes of David Raya and Harry Kane could well be on the move with transfers potentially taking them outside the Premier League. Newcastle were very good defensively last season but you'd be brave to include 3 of their back line in your squad particularly given their tough start to the season. While of course 22/23 favourite, Ivan Toney will be suspended for the first 5 months of the season.

Bernd Leno looks like a decent value option at 4.5 million either as a back-up or potentially as a rotation if you're not keen on splashing out on one of the more expensive keeper options. Fulham have had a tricky pre-season with some key players leaving and knocks to a couple of first team regulars. They also face away days at both Arsenal and City ahead of the first international break, so Leno might be one to come back to later in the year.

In defence, Arsenal's Gabriel started all 38 Premier League games last season but will the acquisition of Jurien Timber plus a return to the Champions League mean that Arsenal will rotate their back line more this season? The big Brazilian also chipped in 3 goals but had xG of 5.04 (he scored 5 goals in 21/22 season).

Tyrone Mings is one of 3 Villa players in this squad and with the Midlands club enjoying a strong finish to last season it wouldn't be any great surprise to see managers bringing in at least a couple of their players from the start. Mings managed to pick up 17 Bonus Points last season as well as 14 clean sheets, both a personal best for him in an EPL season.

Another Villa player, Douglas Luiz, is in fact the surprise best midfield option as far as points per pound go. His 142 points exceeded anything that he'd managed in his 3 previous FPL seasons and included 13 goal involvements (6 goals and 7 assists). He'd only got 12 goal involvements in his first 3 seasons in total prior to this. Is he a one season wonder or simply the beneficiary of a more advanced role being afforded to him by Unai Emery?

Elsewhere in midfield, it's no great surprise to find a couple of Arsenal's main performers from last year in Odegaard and Martinelli. Perhaps the only surprise is that they continue to be relatively affordable at 8.5 and 8.0 million respectively. Both enjoyed more Premier League minutes last season than they have in the past and again, the question must be whether either will get as much time on the pitch now that Arsenal have strengthened their squad and have other commitments beyond domestic trophies.

Perhaps surprisingly, Pascal Gross is the only Brighton midfielder who makes the list. The German's 159 points marked a return to form after a few years in the FPL wilderness since he burst onto the scence in the 17/18 season with 164 points.

Eberechi Eze is a player that I've been keeping an eye for a while. I was disappointed that Spurs didn't follow-up their interest in him while he was at QPR and certainly think he has the skill set to move to a club challenging for European spots. Palace of course enjoyed a very strong finish to last year under Roy Hodgson who certainly took the breaks off a few of the Eagles attack minded players. Was that a temporary upturn or can they keep it going?

Upfront, Ollie Watkins has enjoyed a change of management and the simplification of his role at the club which now involves him spending significantly more time around the penalty spot, finishing off Villa's moves. The expectation levels will certainly be higher this coming year but it should be remembered that Watkins has never failed to hit double figures in the league in the 3 seasons that he's been plying his trade in the top flight.

And if you're wondering about a few of the premium and popular players who didn't make the 15...

Erling Haaland ranks 6th for value amongst forwards so even if you did decide to remove Toney and Kane from this squad, you'd still find better value in picking Solanke and Callum Wilson over the big Norwegian.

In midfield, Saka is ranked 9th, Rashford drops to 15th following his significant price rise during the off-season and Mo Salah is way down in 36th behind the likes of Jefferson Lerma and Thomas Soucek.

As for defenders, TAA is ranked 30th while John Stones comes in at rank 39th!

In fact, there are no Liverpool, United or City players anywhere near this squad of 15 which clearly shows that while premium players do undoubtedly put up big points hauls that you do end up paying for the name and the club when it comes to FPL buys.

Most minutes in the EPL last season

If there is one thing to be mindful of at any stage of the FPL season, then it's that you want your players to actually get time on the pitch! As it turns out, it's pretty difficult to score points when you don't play.

This much is particularly true early on in the season when knowing exactly who is likely to get game time is a bit trickier. Therefore, a sensible option would be to back players who were absolute bankers for their teams in the 22/23 season.

This next squad shows the 15 players who played the most Premier League minutes last season...

Again, there are a few players that immediately have big red flashing warning signs next to them including Kane, Toney and Raya. In fact, if Arsenal follow through on their interest in David Raya, then they'll have acquired the 2 remaining EPL keepers who played every single minute of the season last year - unless Ramsdale get's shifted to centre forward (he might be a better finisher than Gabriel Jesus) then something would have to give in that regard.

Otherwise, the back line has decent variety but perhaps lacks a bit of flair with 4 centre backs and only one full back/wing back on offer.

Salah and Fernandes would both be smart picks given that they are likely to be on penalty duty for their respective clubs so you certainly want them on the pitch should that opportunity for easy points present itself.

However, the rest of the midfield is a bit vanilla. Yes, they'll all churn out points throughout the season but getting those big scores is going to be difficult with Rice, Lerma and Iwobi in your squad.

'The Template'

"The template" is a name for the squad of 15 selected by the highest % of FPL managers at any one time. You can find plenty of sites and social media accounts that keep this squad up to date throughout the season.

It's certainly worth following what other managers are doing and at the beginning of the season, having more 'template' players in your squad does lessen the risk of making a disastrous start and leaving yourself well behind the rest of the league.

On the flip side, it also lessens your chance of getting ahead by picking the players that everyone else is scoring with i.e. Haaland!

There is a huge element of luck to FPL but where the real skill comes in is being able to get players into your squad before the world and his wife decides to pick them too. Calculating risk vs reward is what the best managers can do but that risk is probably greatest at the beginning of the season when form is harder to establish.

Here's what the collective believe is the best squad for 2023/24 at the time of writing.

It probably won't come as any great surprise that this squad is way over budget, £14 million over budget to be exact, so you're going to have to make a few compromises.

In goal, West Ham's hero from the Conference League final, Areola, is a popular pick with managers hoping that his displays in that competition will see him becoming first choice in the league. At 4 million and alongside a premium keeper, he's probably worth a gamble.

Next to him though, Aaron Ramsdale faces the possibility of being joined at Arsenal by David Raya. It'd be harsh for Ramsdale to lose his spot immediately but Raya was the highest points scoring keeper last season so the Gunner's number 1 would certainly be under pressure and not an automatic starter.

At the back, it's no great surprise that teams are mainly going for full backs/wing backs and in the case of Trippier, Shaw and TAA, players who will be on set piece duty too.

Estupinan was a very popular pick in the second half of last season and despite going up in value, managers have kept the faith in him, no doubt encouraged by Brighton's relatively easy start to the campaign.

Man City too have a pretty easy start to the season which alongside Stones' move into more of a midfield role might account for his popularity. The England international did notch 13 bonus points last season despite only playing 1844 minutes in the EPL.

Despite finishing behind both Odegaard and Martinelli in our points per pound squad, managers believe that Saka is the Arsenal midfielder to stick with. Given Arsenal's relatively easy start to the campaign and the fact that Saka is on penalty duty, £8.5million does look a very reasonable price for one of the best players in the league, playing in one of the best attacks...

Marcus Rashford's jump in price of £2.5 million from the start of last season and the impending arrival of Rasmus Højlund to compete for goals hasn't put managers off selecting him. While another firm favourite at the back end of last season in Mitoma is back amongst a good number of squads this year.

Mo Salah and Bruno Fernandes are also very popular picks and again, given their importance to their teams and the fact that they are penalty takers, it's understandable to see that managers are keen to include them from the off.

Up front, we have the only 'new' player to feature in any of the 3 squads in Chelsea's Nkunku. Certainly Chelsea's lack of a goal scorer cost them significantly last year and FPL managers are banking on Nkunku being the man to solve that particular problem. At £7.5 million he could be one of the signings of the season if he hits his straps.

Otherwise, it's very much back to a couple of familiar faces. Gabriel Jesus was the most picked player at this stage last season but injury and patchy form in front of goal saw his popularity drop. While Arsenal have invested in most other areas of their squad, the fact that Jesus remains the number 1 forward at the club does suggest that he'll get game time and his £8 million price tag is again very attractive.

Then it's the man the machine Erling Haaland who finished last season in over 80% of FPL squads and is well on his way to starting this season as the most popular player (86.4% selection rate at time of writing). FPL managers are clearly happy to ignore his dip in form towards the back end of last season and stump up the £14.5million needed to get him in your squad!

The Ultimate Starting Squad

For the final squad, I've ranked all players on the 3 methods above and then combined those rankings to create a squad of players who simultaneously represent good value for money, are highly likely to play and that are popular amongst FPL managers.

Again, this team comes in well over budget (£111.0 million) and has too many Arsenal players in it so you'd have to make tweaks to the 15.

What's interesting is that it shows 2 Brentford players who didn't quite make the 15 of any of the 3 example squads above but who sneak into the ultimate squad.

If you are looking for budget alternatives then the following players all rank within the top 40 using this combined method and are certainly worth consideration.

GK - Pickford and Leno (both £4.5mil)
Def - Henry, Tarkowski and Burn (all £4.5mil)
Mid - Mac Allister (£6mil), Gibbs-White (£6mil) and Rice (£5.5mil)

Incorporating 2 or 3 of these players and leaving out one of Kane or Haaland would bring you under budget...

Who are you picking for your starting squad and how do you come to that decision?