World Cup 2022 - How Many Goals Will There Be?

Hello there!

Being someone who has a keen interest in Statistics, it's always fun and interesting to put some of the knowledge into practice and real life applications. In this case, I am referring to betting odds.

But before I begin, I thought I should put out a big and bold disclaimer that this is solely a textbook practice and it's not meant to encourage anyone to bet because statistics is always about probabilities and my analysis is just meant to be a fun exercise (and this means I could be way wrong!).

This post is a continuation of the earlier post so you might want to refer to it for background.
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Post #2
Post #3

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Predicting Total Goals In World Cup 2022

Just like the results of the World Cup, the odds of the number of goals have swung from left to right and it's definitely challenging to predict this time. Since the last update, the last 8 matches saw 23 goals, and the odds have now favoured the "155 to 165 Goals" option.

With 16 matches left, how does the model look?

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Where We Are

After 48 matches:

• Total Goals: 120
• Mean (average goals per match): 2.50
• Variance: 3.66

As there are a total of 64 matches, we are more than halfway through and there are 16 matches to go. Using the data of 48 matches played as a sample, we can apply lambda (λ), or mean, of 2.50. So the mean goals for the remaining matches would be 16 * 2.50 = 40.

So we are assuming the remaining goals for 16 matches (X) would follow a Poisson distribution with mean 40, i.e. X ~ Po(40).

Looking back on the betting odds:

• If we needed the total goals to be less than 155, that means we can only afford to have 34 more goals given the current tally is 120. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(X <= 34) = 19.39%.
• If we needed the total goals to be between 156 to 165, that means we want to have 35 to 45 more goals given the current tally is 120. Punching the numbers into Excel/Google Sheet, P(35 <= X <= 45) = 61.58%.
• If we needed the total goals to be more than 165, that means we want to have 46 or more goals given the current tally is 120. P(X >= 46) = 19.03%.

Presenting these numbers in a table and including the betting odds in the earlier screenshot:

Total Goals	Probability	Converting to Odds	Actual Odds
Less than 155 Goals	47.21% -> 19.39%	5.16	1.90 -> 3.00
155 to 165 Goals	43.68% -> 61.58%	1.62	2.40 -> 1.60
More than 165 Goals	9.11% -> 19.03%	5.25	5.50 -> 6.00

Comparing the odds by the model vs the betting odds, there's not much value in any of the bets. I have earlier stuck my neck out and call for "More than 165 Goals". Like I mentioned in the earlier posts, the final 16 matches have a chance of additional 30 minutes of extra time if they end as a draw at full time. More minutes of playing means more chance for goals.

With 120 goals already on the tally, "Less Than 155 Goals" is definitely looking dangerous with every goal from now on.

Of course, the same caution applies.

• The model is based on the assumption that the goals follow a Poisson Distribution. (Which might or might not be true)
• I have used the sample mean based on the current 48 matches, which might or might not be reflective of the full 64 matches. If you use a different mean, the results would be different.
• The mean and variance for the 48 matches have come down drastically but are slightly different for now, so a Poisson distribution might not be a strong fit. But I will observe as the matches go on.

In conclusion, I will stick to my earlier call and remain status quo for this update! Definitely monitoring the "155 to 165 Goals" option as it looks set to fall within the range based on the probabilities.

With that, thanks for reading! Really appreciate it if you have gone this far. As usual, let me know any thoughts that you have!