Splinterland's : So where are the VOUCHERS and can they cause SPS bull run?
Splinterland's : So where are the VOUCHERS and can they cause SPS bull run?
VOUCHERS are indeed hot and buying a one CHAOS-LEGION pack of $4 (or $3.60) requires a VOUCHER that cost almost $18 or more currently.
But when you see at the below picture of Chaos-Legion leaderboards then you will notice a very surprising fact. A fact that is related to the overall pack sale.
It almost 26 days of Vouchers airdrop and airdrop is going to end in next 4 days but number of packs sold is less then the 1/3 of the total packs allocated for the presale.
So if we calculate, then more ten 850K Vouchers are distributed and less then 350K packs are purchased.
So where are these 500K Vouchers are?
Vouchers are selling hot so might be they are listed in market, so I checked VOUCHER market.
So it look like Hive-Engine do not have much VOUCHERS listed and all they account for less then 3000 only.
Let check how many VOUCHERS are in the tribaldex pool.
So look like tribaldex has 1939+12239+514 Vouchers, that still make less then 15K Vouchers.
Look like market have only 20K Vouchers and this is very negligible if compared to 500K VOUCHERS.
It simply means that half a million Vouchers are not still converted into packs. Maybe the owner of these Voucher still waiting that price might spike then they will sell it or they might be waiting to buy packs at last moment.
Can SPS may spike?
Still some 650K Voucher need to be sold , and if price of SPS remains at 50 cents, it still need some 7 SPS per Voucher purchase that still require 4.5 million SPS to be taken out of market and it is lot of SPS .
But if you see liquid SPS , still 136 million SPS is in liquid form and SPS is getting airdropped daily. So it does not look to me that some demand of 4.5 million SPS can drive the price up.
But I still believe SPS is currently undervalued and can do some 10x in next 2-3 years easily and if in very bullish mode then may be 100x too.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, DYOR. I am avid splinterland's player and own multiple digital assets in this game.
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Good analysis. Do you think there will be a last minute bull run or crash?
I am not expecting any crash on price, though there may be slight possibility of bull run.
I think every one has already taken the decision , might execute all orders after airdrop ends.
Most of the VOUCHERS are with individuals only ,even not listed in market, A single whale (having some 2000+ Voucher) in doing trade in any side(buying vs selling) can swing this market.
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If the vouchers aren't on the market then they are hiding in the hands of players. Many players are waiting to make sure they can get to key marks before buying. 50, 100, and 1000 are the ones I hear my guild members going for. Mostly waiting until the last minute to make sure they get the biggest bonus they can and some are deciding if they are close enough to a key number to make purchasing some more a good idea.
A more clear picture will come when airdrop end. These vouchers are still in individual accounts away from market.
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If you want to know where the vouchers are hiding, you just have to take a look at the richlist on peakmonsters: https://peakmonsters.com/richlist
Also, you don't have all the orders that are on the market when you check the graph.
There is actually 4100 vouchers on the market.
For more info, you can check https://jjb777.github.io/hive-engine-classic/?p=market&t=VOUCHER
Thanks for the links.
What is your prediction on this Voucher market?
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Sincerely I have absolutely no idea. Market has proved me wrong a few times already. I bought like 200 vouchers when the prices started to rise from their lowest. I bought at 17$ and sold them at 19 something yesterday to finance another project but at some point I was afraid they would start to drop.
Lots of bots have been buying/selling the whole time and they aren't investing in the game. I don't know if the accumulated too many and will be stucked with them before then end of presale. If that's the case, we should see the prices drop considerably in the last few days but my original bet is that they would go back in the 25$ area... but like I said, the market is really hard to follow.
It really was a chaotic presale. I'm starting to sleep better now. Whatever happens in this phase should happen next phase too unless the team hypes everything with something new which is something they've been doing for a while.
Splinterlands makes it easy to earn on a daily .
!PIZZA
yes.. I am staking my all airdrop SPS so that I can get these nice airdrop.
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peakmonsters has a "richlist", which you can configure for vouchers. i couldnt properly link it. (https://peakmonsters.com/richlist)
Here is a screenshot. You can see, that #2 - #7 are people with >1mil sps that receive(d) the daily max of vouchers, and have not sold a single one of them. The follow ups are similarly big fish with lots of sps staked. The big question will be, if those vouchers will enter the market or will be used privately. Then there is also the @sl-hive, but i guess that is liquidity pools?
Thank you for the financial advice. I'm getting a second mortgage on my home and buying $50,000 worth of SPS. Ha! Just kidding. But seriously, thank you for the good post.
Thanks for sharing! - @alokkumar121
the complete supply of sps is not realeased yet and do you think that will drive the price down? If the game generates more users than, i see it spiking up.