The mistake I've been making in Sorare NBA and how to avoid it

This time I am going to share the results of a week that has not been very good due to a systematic mistake I have made several times for not doing a proper analysis.

What happened?

Having clear that any kind of forecast is affected by variables such as probability and chance, as well as Murphy's law to a lesser degree, I am going to tell you where I think my mistake has been.

First of all, when constructing the teams I have considered players who have performed well in the previous days, forgetting a basic rule that applies to trading: previous results do not predict future events.

The fact that a player like Ashiuwa has had a perfomance of 48 in one week does not imply that he will replicate or surpass that mark next week. No, what can happen is that he will return to his average of 20, which is his natural trend.

The other mistake was not taking into account which team he was going to face. It's strange that I haven't thought about it before, because in baseball, for example, I do consider the stats of a pitcher against a particular team but in basketball I have neglected to do something so obvious and necessary.

Despite the fact that 2/3 teams managed to produce over 200 points, several players are not at the top of their game.

One of them is Hayward, who is playing limited minutes due to injury. Richardson and DiVicenzo also performed similarly for the same reasons.

Others really broke out of the mold like Maxey with 53. A rookie who has been rising like crazy is , who if he continues at this pace will cost more than 20 points next week.

Garland, Turner and Vucevic did their thing. It is clear that to have an acceptable ranking position you need to have four players with a performance above 50 points.

If any of them turn out to be the crown jewel and score 70+ points, we can almost certainly be in the Top 100 in that league.

What does Murphy's Law have to do with all this?

Of Murphy's 8 laws, I will keep one that applies best in this case: There is always a problem for every solution.

When a manager chooses one player as a starter and leaves another on the bench, he assumes the risk of being wrong in his choice. It solves one problem and inevitably causes another.

In Sorare NBA we can make that player go to practice and with that we get a BIG surprise when we realize that he has double or triple the points of the player we chose.

For example, Williams had one of his best games and accumulated 47 points, after having been discarded for having scored only 19 points the previous week.

How to avoid the mistake?

First, read and learn Murphy's Law to understand that we can make mistakes.

Second, reduce the incidence of error with a more exhaustive analysis that considers the player's performance throughout the season to know what his average points are and not make decisions based on a good performance in a single game.

Following that premise, I could have noticed that Williams is much more consistent than Achiuwa.

And third, take into account which team he is going to face, if it is a team with a good defense or the opposite, if in previous games against that team he has performed well, even evaluate his position on the field and how that affects his performance.

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