Week 12 Results | 39W-16L-08P | +1.737 Units Profit

about 2 months ago (Edited)

This is a weekly overview of my personal sports betting/trading results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.

Week 12 was a pretty weird one as I started out with a continued unfortunate steak where all red cards and bad events went against me which both made me extra cautious. Combined with the fact that most lines pretty much looked on point and the feeling I was just chasing tiny edges on what I believed were winners where the odds weren't that wrong, I really stepped down my stakes only having 1 'confident' 0.4 unit bet (which turned out to be spot on). However, what followed Saturday and Sunday was a wave of winners where pretty much all my leans pulled through often-times just being coinflips against the handicap that could have dropped the other way.

So in a way, it was nice to earn +1.737 units while at the same time it kind of feels like wasted upside variance since I kept my stakes so low. at just 4.874 units staked on total over 13 matches, it didn't even equal 0.4 units on average for each match. That for sure is a major working point while at the same time it is hard as I see only very limited edges on the lines that are offered. On the positive side, it all puts me back in a positive flow even though I'm still down slightly over the season.

Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2024-2025

I only was confident enough on 1 bet to take it up as a bold selection which was Kv Mechelen +0 @ 1.990 away against Dender. It delivered on the closing line which was lower, the result and the actual match picture as the win was well deserved with a 0.61-3.27 xg advantage for them. Also weird how 5 of the 7 goals came after minute 92'. Overall, things still look quite good on these selection of bets who have performed really well long-term while they now despite the small loss on the season also crush the closing lines.

Previous 4 Seasons Result

Aside from sharing my previews and bets on my Blog, I also cover all matches live in our SBC Discord Channel sharing all the bets I take. The main purpose is to stay sharp and keep myself accountable.

I take all my Pre-Game & Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provides the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and doesn't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review

Season 2024-2025 Personal Betting Chart

The steepness of the pink expected line flattened a lot as the average stakes last week were so small and I do aim to get them up again and go higher eventually. The funny thing always is how results shoot up when I reduce stakes while the plummet the moment I start being a bit more courageous. I guess just flat betting riding the streaks would be optimal but that would for sure have an effect on the mental side. Basically I keep doing what have worked for many many years making small adjustments to stay competitive and if the time comes when it really shows that it's not good enough anymore I will adjust further. For now, this is not yet the case but if it would be that I have another year with results well below the average I will need to take it as way more than just variance.

Regular Season Results 2024-2025

Total Season 2023-2024 Results
555 Bets | 236W-249L-70P | 64.770 Staked | -0.712u Loss | -1.10% ROI

I hope to continue the winning flow from Saturday and Sunday going into weeks with plenty of matches to have action on. I will be back with the next results update in a week.

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