Jupiler League Season 2024-2025 Statistics
As each year, I keep my own excel sheet mainly with stats that indicated form against the asian handicaps to potentially identify which team might be overrated or underrated on the market. This often is not seen in the normal standings. The regular season standing so far looks like this:
Dender who was a relegation candidate at the start is the major surprise mainly because they started their preparation very early and were able to profit from that while not having luck against them. While the other promoted team Beerschot is dead last and look like they stand little to no chance to save themselves.
Overall Stats
If anything, it really stands out how home teams, under and underdogs have been beating the lines bonth on the opening and closing line odds.
Best Teams against Asian Handicap
| Team | ROI |
|---|---|
| Dender | +72.25% ROI |
| OH Leuven | +43.28% ROI |
| Anderlecht | +28.60% ROI |
| Standard | +16.50% ROI |
| Mechelen | +14.50% ROI |
| Westerlo | +10.0% ROI |
| Charleroi | +8.17% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | +0.67% ROI |
| Genk | -4.00% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -11.17% ROI |
| Antwerp | -12.33% ROI |
| AA Gent | -19.80% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -34.83% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -39.20% ROI |
| Union | -44.08% ROI |
| Beerschot | -67.17% ROI |
It's ni surprise to see Dender as the team that has totally crushed the Asian handicaps as the team who leads the ranking while seen as a relegation candidate. All the top teams (aside from Anderlecht who got lucky) have been overrated and performed badly against the Asian Handicap. This while Beerschot has been highly overrated despite being last and seen as one of the major relegation candidates. A surprise also is to see Standard as a team who has been overly adjusted in their handicaps while Stvv also is at a profit. OHL was one of the teams I expected to be a revelation as it also shows even though I failed to really capitalise on it as they started the league not getting further than a 0-0 against Beerschot.
Highest Goals Team against Asian Total
| Team | ROI |
|---|---|
| Dender | +38.25% ROI |
| Beerschot | +23.17% ROI |
| Westerlo | +20.83% ROI |
| Genk | +11.40% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | -1.33% ROI |
| Mechelen | -2.17% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -3.40% ROI |
| Anderlecht | -34.00% ROI |
| Charleroi | -35.83% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -37.08% ROI |
| Union | -38.50% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -39.00% ROI |
| Antwerp | -41.67% ROI |
| AA Gent | -42.60% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -68.00% ROI |
| Standard | -100% ROI |
It's no major surprise to see Standard at -100% ROI on the over line as they have been very focused on defense while they are unable on the offense. Dender despite being only 12th in my xg standings ranks 1st which fully comes down to variance as every impossible angle they shot on goal at pretty much went in so far.
1H Standings
| Team | 1H Average Points |
|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 2.00 |
| Westerlo | 1.83 |
| OH Leuven | 1.67 |
| Dender | 1.67 |
| Antwerp | 1.50 |
| Anderlecht | 1.40 |
| Sint-Truiden | 1.33 |
| Mechelen | 1.33 |
| Charleroi | 1.33 |
| AA Gent | 1.20 |
| Union | 1.17 |
| Genk | 1.00 |
| Cercle Brugge | 1.00 |
| Standard | 0.83 |
| Kortrijk | 0.50 |
| Beerschot | 0.33 |
This shows which teams tend to be good in 1st half and better or worse in the 2nd based on the regular handicap standings. Club Brugge has a higher chance to start good but weaken along the way.
Hidden Divergence
One of the things I also look at is possible hidden divergence where the overall stats are a mix of extreme stats on home/away/over/under which oppose themselves. This at times can create an edge. From a quick look these are standing out.
| Team | Home Over | Away over |
|---|---|---|
| Kv Mechelen | +95.67% | -100% |
With only 6 weeks it's hard to make any conclusions on most teams but it very much looks like Mechelen is an over home team and an under away team which might be something to keep in mind for the coming weeks.
I'll be back on Friday with more previews, bets, and result roundups for week 7 of the league and already look forward to going at it again.
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