Belgian Pro League Regular Season 2024-2025 Recap
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Final Standings vs Predictions
The season ended with Genk on top while Beerschot, Kortijk, Stvv, & Cercle Brugge ended in the playdowns.
I predicted things like this (See Season 2024-2025 Preview)
| Rank | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge |
| 2 | Racing Genk |
| 3 | Anderlecht |
| 4 | AA Gent |
| 5 | Antwerp |
| 6 | Union |
| 7 | OH Leuven |
| 8 | Cercle Brugge |
| 9 | Kv Mechelen |
| 10 | Standard |
| 11 | Westerlo |
| 12 | Kv Kortrijk |
| 13 | Charleroi |
| 14 | Stvv |
| 15 | Dender |
| 16 | Beerschot |
Based on my personal scores that I give to measure form after each match, the top 5 is pretty correct and Mainly AA Gent who got crazy lucky overperformed.
I would say it was close enough Predicting Genk would end quite high while otherwise I was wrong on OHL being a revelation as instead they were a big letdown at least when looking at the standings. Just betting Genk and OHL blindly each match at closing line would have resulted in +4.07 units & +2.965 units so both ended positive against the asian handicap. Those standings at theend of the regular season are
| Team | Closing Line ROI |
|---|---|
| Genk | +13.57% |
| Standard | +13.37% |
| Stvv | +11.43% |
| Leuven | +9.88% |
| AA Gent | +6.38% |
| Anderlecht | +1.67% |
| Antwerp | +1.42% |
| Union | -1.10% |
| Dender | -2.72% |
| Mechelen | -5.55% |
| Westerlo | -7.45% |
| Beerschot | -9.77% |
| Club Brugge | -11.55% |
| Charleroi | -15.23% |
| Kortrijk | -19.03% |
| Cercle Brugge | -21.97% |
So basically a conclusion can be made that a top teal with no European duty performed best against the asian line while the Smaller team who did have European Duty underperformed the most against the asian lines.
Xg Numbers
| Xg For | Xg Against | Total Xg |
|---|---|---|
 |  |  |
The 3 best teams clearly stood out being in the top 3 both on most Xg for and least Xg against
Highest Goal Teams vs Total Handicap
| Team | ROI on Over Total |
|---|---|
| Westerlo | +10.40% |
| Beerschot | +9.03% |
| Stvv | +4.20% |
| Dender | +0.50% |
| Club Brugge | -1.10% |
| Kortrijk | -1.77% |
| Union | -7.38% |
| Genk | -8.35% |
| Antwerp | -15.50% |
| Charleroi | -21.70% |
| Anderlecht | -21.77% |
| Standard | -25.83% |
| AA Gent | -29.47% |
| Cercle Brugge | -30.23% |
| OH Leuven | -44.77% |
This season was a clear under season with an overall +6.19% ROI if you would have just taken the under closing lines on all 240 matches. More than anything I would say that the handicaps are just overly adjusted. Only Westerlo and Beerschoit are the team who not surprisingly given their play style managed to have positive numbers on the over.
Conclusion
Overall I would say this was a very weak Regular Season with many of the top teams having too much focus on the European Leagues while many teams at the bottom played scared which resulted in a lof of under. It again got confirmed that you want to back the top teams who don't have European Loads.
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