Belgian League 2022-2023 | Stats & Final Season Results Review

over 1 year ago

The new season is set to start in just a couple of weeks and I still need to do a full roundup on the overall stats and results of 2022-2023 with an eye to adjust and possibly improve. So here it is...

I already made an Roundup of all the Crypto Bets and I intend to take more of those the coming season in a similar way. Those resulted in 76 bets and a nice + 17.62% ROI (Link)

Season Team and Handicap Stats

Looking at all the results combined, the juice made it so that pretty much everything was negative if you were to bet all the favorites, underdogs, overs and unders both on opening and closing lines. Just the away teams on closing line showed a tiny profit.

I do give each team a personal score since I watch all matches trying to stay as neutral as possible which had this as a result

Adding all scores up compared to the actual standings it's pretty close

I will continue doing this in the coming season as it helps to determine actual form aside from any outside influence.

The ranking in most underrated and overrated teams on the asian betting market is also something that I make personal stats on. This were the results when betting teams each week blindly on the Closing Lines...

Team	ROI
Antwerp	+21.96%
Genk	+18.53%
Standard	+18.06%
Leuven	+17.53%
Westerlo	+9.75%
Union	+5.85%
Stvv	+5.80%
Kortrijk	+3.68%
Charleroi	+1.27%
Cercle Brugge	-2.15%
Club Brugge	-12,53%
AA Gent	-14.16%
Mechelen	-14.8%
Anderlecht	-14.94%
Seraing	-17.5%
Eupen	-19.18%
Zulte-Warezgem	-21.01%
Oostende	-29.59%

It seems like Antwerp & Genk were the most underrated teams on the market as also Standard who everyone agrees upon that Deila really got the most out of that team.

When it comes down to the totals, these were the most overish and underish teams against the Asian Handicap based on the results when blindly betting over on every match...

Team	ROI
Union	+16.13%
Genk	+15.22%
Charleroi	+14.24%
Zulte-Warezgem	+11.88%
Mechelen	+11.30%
Oostende	+10.60%
Eupen	+3.00%
Seraing	+0.22%
Standard	-1.43%
Westerlo	-1.13%
Anderlecht	-2.41%
Kortrijk	-4.22%
AA Gent	-6.49%
Leuven	-9.72%
Cercle Brugge	-10.46%
Club Brugge	-12.21%
Stvv	-14.72%
Antwerp	-26.10%

It's a bit of a surprise to See Union as the team doing bets on the overs while no surprise at all to see Antwerp as the team with the best results against the asian under given their play style even though odds did get adjusted.

Personal Betting Result Stats

Once again this season, I totally crushed it on pre-game bets which on 358 bets and 72 units staked saw a +19.64% ROI. I do often take live bets hedging out without them necessarily needing to be +EV which shows in the results as 460 live bets in total saw a slight -2.84% Negative result. This is also due to pre-game bets being that high so I'm not overly worried even though I also would like to see those in profit overall.

Corner bets for many years were the bets that stood out to the point where I began to worry as they aren't that scalable and getting most profit from those was not the most healthy. This season however saw some regression to the mean with a -5.36% ROI on 437 Bets in the Regular Season.

Overall though, I can only be pleased with an ROI of +4.71% and a chart that never really had massive ups or downs ending above the expected profit.

I take all my Pre-Game & Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provides the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and doesn't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review

Overall Conclusion

With 236.716 units staked in total after 1598 bets, the actual average bet is only around 0.15 units which was the main challenge last season. I did however move up quite a bit in absolute stakes which represent the unit sizes. For this season I plan to keep the stake that represent a full unit the same but move up aiming to have the average stake size a lot higher. I will also try to have less of a correlation between value and units as the bigger edge bets usually have smaller limits. This kept me back on smaller edge plays which has much higher limits. So overall a great season with still a lot of room for progress without the need to drastically change as I'm still beating the bookies.

Playoffs Results 2022-2023

 Total Season 2022-2023 Results
1598 Bets | 724W-699L-175P | 236.716 Staked | +11.150u Profit | +4.71% ROI

Previous Seasons Personal Betting Results [8239 Bets +3.77% ROI]

Season 2022-2023 | 1598 Bets +4.71% ROI
Season 2021-2022 | 1364 Bets +2.72% ROI
Season 2020-2021 | 1504 Bets +4.37% ROI
Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROI

I'm highly looking forward to the new season and I will be back with previews and weekly results updates similar to these past 6 seasons on my blog!

Crypto & Blockchain-Based Bookies and Exchanges that I'm personally using as they allow anonymous betting with no KYC or personal restrictions...

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1 comments

@mercurial9 73

over 1 year ago

Unbelievable consistency so a massive congrats @costanza! I don't think people realise how hard it is to have a profitable betting year and you have been doing that for 6 years!

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