Ashes Test Cricket : Game 5 Betting Analysis

The final game of the Ashes Series kicked off last night and to my eye this looks like the best Cricket Wicket of the entire series so far. Conditions have helped a bit, but we saw Swing, Seam and Spin all on Day 1 along with some glorious shots played - particularly by Englands Harry Brook. Cricket Nuffies will often claim they want to see a wicket with a "Balance between Bat and Ball" and "Something in it for everyone" and this wicket looks like exactly that so well done to the curators of The Oval in London.

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After last game I had hoped to see Pat Cummins rested for this final game and Smith promoted back to Captaincy because I think he is better tactically and Cummins looked tired. With the Ashes retained I think this would have been a smart move, but Cummins played and then toiled a bit. He got just 1 wicket on Day 1 and went for over 5 runs an over – not great. I WAS very happy to see Australia bring back the new Spinner Todd Murphy and he repaid the faith by getting 2 wickets including the makeshift Number 3 - Moeen Ali. In the context of the game that wicket was super important because with Harry Brook those two put on 111 runs together. That partnership was the Highlight of Englands play on Day 1 and breaking it really cracked open the English Innings as their last 7 wickets fell for just 99 runs.

The dropped catches by Australia were really disappointing and out of character. They suggest a lack of focus and intensity – which is not surprising since this is a Dead Rubber game in many ways. Australia have Retained the Ashes already so they are only playing for an outright series win and they can get it with a Draw in this game, while England are playing for pride and with a win they can finish 2-2 to retain Whingeing Rights over the horrible injustices they’ve faced in this series (sarcasm intended). That said, I normally stay clear of Dead Rubber type games but there might be something here if I can find the Value.

So where is that Value? My gut feeling is that it genuinely would not surprise me if this match ended as a Tie. A Tied Test Match is an extremely rare event and would have to be maybe 300-1 for me to even waste a dollar on it at this point. However, I will keep an eye on the Tied Result from about Day 4 and if the market looks true I might go for a Hail Mary punt on it. I’m also looking at Aussie Bats to get Centuries on Day 2. Labuschagne and Smith are always a good chance, while Khawaja and Head have some good form. If the pitch flattens out a bit and the clouds clear then I reckon at least one of them can get a Ton. The challenge is in finding a decent price.

I can get Head at 8.00 and he did score 163 on this ground in the WTC Final just 7 weeks ago so that’s probably value. Best I can find on Labuschagne is 6.50 which is decent considering he got a 2nd Innings 111 in his last outing. Smith and Khawaja are about 5.00 to 5.50 which is probably too short to be considered value. The weather looks decent but I’m leaving the Result alone for this game because I think it could be really close.