Ashes Test Cricket : Game 3 Betting Analysis

The 3rd Test looks like a real a change of pace from the first 2 Tests of this Ashes Series. After Day 1 its pretty clear to me that this match is going to be dominated by Seam and Pace. The pitch looks rock hard and so does the outfield. Cricket Nuffies would say that “You get value for your shots” on grounds like this and what they mean is that the ball runs so fast over the outfield that you can score 4’s with much greater ease if you hit the gaps and Batsmen don’t have to physically run as much. If you take a look at the scorecard it tells the story very clearly. 13 wickets fell on Day 1 and 12 of them were at, or behind the crease – ie, LBW, Bowled, Caught Wicket Keeper / Slips. The fastest English bowler got 5 wickets and the fastest Aussie got 2 out of 3. Compare that to last game where it was a lot of Bouncers, Top Edges and Outfield Catches...

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I’ve made a big deal out of the differences in the Spin Department over the first 2 games and with the Lyon injury it’s Todd Murphy coming in as the Aussie Spinner. He played in India and did OK but this isn’t India and I consider his prospects in this game to be both intriguing and highly variant. The English bats will no doubt go after him so he could go for 100 runs or he could get a bag of wickets. The late legendary spinner Shane Warne would always say "If it Seams then it’ll Spin" so he’s definitely in the game here, but it’s risky to bet such high variance so I will leave the Spin angles alone for this Test. Considering the Pace and Seam we’ve seen on Day 1 I think this is probably a Test where the Spinners can take a bit of a back seat. That’s good news for England as part-time spinner Moeen Ali returns to the side and he may well add more value in this game with the Bat than he does with the Ball.

So where is the Value in this Test? Good bloody question. I would write the Draw off completely if it weren’t for the dodgy weather forecast. I’d probably have Australia slightly ahead of the game but the Market doesn’t agree with me. Maybe as an Australian I am showing some subconscious bias, but the Market seems to think England are going to get 300 in their 1st Innings. At 63 for 3 overnight and no real signs of the pitch dying down I think that’s a big ask. The Seam movement might settle down a bit as the ball gets older, but the Pace is looking consistently Fast and Reverse Swing is not out of the question on a hard pitch like this. I will keep an eye on the ball condition and look out for ball changes but I don’t see batting getting that much easier on Day 2 and 3 like it often does on a more conventional greenish Test Pitch.

It honestly would not surprise me if all 4 Innings ended up under 300 runs so Unders could be the play for this match. Very hard to pick a winner at this point with so much variance in the weather and I want to see if the pitch starts to deteriorate later in the game. If it starts cracking up on Day 4 then any final chase over 250 is going to be very tough for England but if its holding together OK then another Stokes inspired miracle chase is definitely going to be fun to watch and worth a Punt.