Ashes Test Cricket : Game 1 Betting Review

What a great game of cricket the 1st Test of the Ashes this year turned out to be. If you love Test Cricket then this is the pinnacle of where it's at. The game had everything and was pretty closely fought through the whole 5 days and (perhaps more importantly) it was played in the right spirit. Both teams were chasing the win with aggressive, bold and innovative play. I struggle to remember watching a game of cricket that I’ve enjoyed more than this one but I’ll try not to rave on too much about it because mainstream has the platitudes well covered. Instead I’ll do a little bit of a betting review since for me it was a bit messy.

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I normally do try and review my betting with a bit of a Post Mortem Analysis. Especially when I take some losses I like to work through the mistakes to figure out where I went wrong so that I can avoid the same mistakes next time. I started the game a bit wobbly when Englands 1st Innings declaration caught me by surprise because I underestimated Englands aggressive mindset. I was then all set to back Australia for runs in the 2nd Innings when I got a very nice tip from @talesfrmthecrypt that the weather had turned a bit and the ball might swing. The previous weather forecast had me expecting sunshine for the first few days so after doing a bit of digging through updated forecasts and checking the Birmingham radar I decided to hedge out my early Australian Runs bet and try to confirm some sunshine on Day 2 before backing Australia for Runs. This turned out to be very fortunate for me as I was able to sit out the first 2 Australian wickets and get back on with the Run Line at 360 when the sun came out – A move which turned a losing bet into a winning one. It can be tricky to stay on top of local conditions from half the world away so getting a tip from a man on the ground in England was a big help. I owe you one!

I was expecting another sporting declaration from England in the 3rd Innings but they wobbled a little bit when batting and set a target of 281 for Australia to chase in the 4th Innings. This was OK for me as it wasn't too short of the target I was hoping to see set anyway. I was also helped by the rain late on Day 4 as it left the bulk of the chase for Day 5 and so I was able to watch the delayed start to play on the final day with Australia only 3 wickets down. The rain delay gave me time to assess the pitch and weather from my unfriendly timezone. I had written in my last post that :-

If Australia has a big edge in this series then it’s in the spin bowling department and if the pitch is still in reasonable shape late in the game I can see Moeen Ali struggling to close out the final innings like a good spinner should. Australia have had good recent experience playing on dusty spinning tracks in recent times so they could be Late Game Specials for the entire series.

This turned out to be pretty much spot on. Once the sun came out and the swinging ball subsided I jumped on to bet Australia to Win at 1.98 not long after the Night Watchman was dismissed and went to bed. The English tried Joe Root as a 2nd part-time spinner but he got slapped around a bit. Moeen Ali went for over 4 runs an over and only got 1 wicket so the part-time spinners really couldn’t close the game out as I had predicted. Stokes was brilliant with his captaincy and gave me a bit of a heart flutter when he got Khawaja out but Australias captain Pat Cummins rose to the occasion to bat out a legendary 44 Not Out to chase down the final runs in style. This result gave me a modest profit overall for the game and I'm feeling a bit lucky.

It’s a win that really sets up the series nicely for Australia. Not just because they take a 1-0 lead but the way Cummins played late in the game was a real captains performance and you could see the team really rally around him after the win. One of the questions I had over Cummins captaincy was his leadership credentials but such a clutch performance can really solidify a captain as one that team mates are inspired to play for (like Stokes is for England). I think England is in a bit of trouble and while they played very well they’ve got some team selection dilemmas they need to sort out. Especially if they are going to be turning out flat wickets they really need a quality spinner in the squad because if they can’t take 20 wickets then they wont win any games.