What this week's Super Bowl taught us
Offensive lines are still gamebreakers.
There’s been some widespread lamentation over the last decade or so- coinciding, perhaps, with the explosion in the passing game- that offensive line play has never been so bad in the NFL. We don’t have the stats for pass/run block win rate going back to the older eras, so it’s a difficult evaluatory exploration. This Super Bowl clearly showed us, regardless of OL reputation league-wide, that dominant lines with good skill position players are still gonna be the gold standard of a playoff calibre offensive juggernaut. Both teams' OL were incredible, and contributed the most to their offensive success- more, I daresay, than even the skill position players.
The Chiefs boasted a 75% (!!!!) pass block win rate this season, with the Eagles nearing top-10 status too with 62%. In terms of run blocking, the Eagles, with a 75% run block win rate, only trailed the Ravens (77%), and the Chiefs were third in the league at 74%. What’s the takeaway here? Both offensive lines of these Super Bowl teams are good. The Eagles in particular had something of an all-star OL cast; Jason Kelce is a HoFer, Lane Johnson is arguably the best T in the league, Mailata is a pro-bowl-level talent, and Dickerson has been an absolute killer this year relative to his pedestrian 2021. The Chiefs, meanwhile, held the Eagles’ elite defense to 0 sacks and perhaps one hit in the big game. We’re talking two very good O-lines here, basically.
So where does this leave us going into the ’23 season? Is OL a priority? Well, maybe, but not definitely. What I think we’re seeing is a great, complete team- with at least a decent defense and a great selection of skill players melding with a top QB- will become elite with a great OL, and otherwise, be extremely vulnerable to these kinds of teams in the playoffs. We saw that with the Bengals losing out both last year vs the Rams and this year vs the Chiefs, as an example.
What this doesn’t mean is that OL is the most important position group. It’s very important, for sure. But pass rushing, cornerback play, and receiver production could all be argued as more valuable, and then of course, QB and Coach are the most important by far. Mahomes’ half a billion contract is there for a reason. OL is limited by the effects of depth (lack of it reducing line integrity massively) and the need for five quality, or at least decent, players to maintain good play. Having a GOAT-tier LT doesn’t make a line good. You’d much rather have five average guys than one elite and four bad, so considerations of drafting and signing and crossing fingers for health are all significant factors in deciding a team’s outlay of draft or financial capital.
I’d say that if you can package a great O-line around an already strong team, then that team is gonna be a serious threat to win it all. If we go through viable SB teams, we see this trend fairly often. I don’t have the stats to hand, but can compute a general string for the last several SBs.
OL quality of past few SB winners
’23 Chiefs: elite
’22 Rams: very good
’21 Bucs: very good
’20 Chiefs: very good
’19 Pats: good/very good
’18 Eagles: elite
The takeaway: SB-winning teams recently usually have good+ OLs protecting a good+ QB and good+ skill position players. Who would’ve thought: to win the SB, you gotta be a good, complete team?
Nice take on it. I think the Left Tackle position in particular has become the second most important position on the field, protecting the QBs blindside. It's amazing what Mailata has become and I'm incredibly proud as an Aussie-Samoan.
If I had to pick between the three, I'd say cornerback play. A good cornerback can limit a quarterback who has ample time because of a substandard pass rush. It also keeps the score down so helps stop scoreboard pressure which can result in a QB throwing errant passes.
Cornerbacks are one of the best paid positions too which I think shows the value of a CB.
I might agree with you here, you know. Despite EDGE tending to be the most valued defensive position, I personally love having an elite CB, to the point that I might take that over an elite rusher depending on the team's makeup. Sauce's effect on that Jets D is an obvious example, but prime Darrelle Revis was one of the most valuable defensive players I've ever seen. I also don't quite understand the importance placed on receiver, despite the fact they're obviously valued heavily. There are tons of good receivers, and a great QB can elevate receiving talent. Would rather have a good O-line than receivers personally, though O-line injuries are awful and seem to happen to every team except the Chiefs.
LT is certainly the premium position on the line, and for one position on it, you've gotta go LT as the pick. They just have too much value in their blindside protection. That being said, I would personally rather have a pair of good guards and a pair of good tackles- cheaper, better for the run game, and imo interior pressure is more devastating than edge pressure for overall QB production. I reckon it'd be easier to get a great IOL and have passable tackles than vice versa, and I think it'd have a greater effect.
What I've noticed in many good O-lines at least this season is they tend to have at least one good tackle, and often two, and then a good center and one good guard, with another guard not being as good. It seems that in reality, guard is the most replaceable position in terms of production if the rest of the line is good. This also explains the value of the tackle in terms of both draft position and contract spend.