I have been attempting to start this series for a while now, the main idea was to write a post that aims to explain how to read statistics. However, the topic seemed a bit too dry to make a whole series about. So, instead of just talking about statistics without an actual goal, we will use it to identify Liverpool's problems this season which will both answer a topic I think many are interested in, but more importantly, help us understand statistics.

More precisely, it will help us understand what the fuck Josh Williams shared about Liverpool's stats a few months ago

https://twitter.com/DistanceCovered/status/1580874352530460674/photo/1

How Do I Read Statistics?

Let's start by answering this core question before moving ahead. The most important thing you need to learn before reading statistics is obviously what they stand for. This prompts many questions like what's the difference between "ball carry" and "take on", or how is pressure measured? How come sometimes we read something like a certain player making 11 recoveries when we are certain they haven't made more than two?

For starters, there are two main sources for stats, one you probably already recognize, Stats Perform, also known as Opta. The other is Stats Bomb. The sites for either entity will show you the definition of any stat you want. You will also find the links for each part of this series.

Ball Recovery Vs Interception

Recovery, by Opta's definition, is:

This is where a player recovers the ball in a situation where neither team has possession or where the ball has been played directly to him by an opponent, thus securing possession for their team.

So, when we see Fabinho with 11 Ball Recoveries when you saw him only get the ball three times, it should register that the 11 recoveries basically mean that the ball was loose, so the opponent doesn't have to begin with before Fabinho took control of it. If you're interested in where you could see those stats for free, then WhoScored is a great destination for that. Go to any match and click on "Match Report" and you'll see all the games' stats.

The match report will take you to the general page of a match, you will see each team's strengths and weaknesses plus a view of simplistic stats. If you go to the "match centre", it will show the map of the game. From there, if you click on "chalkboard" then you will see each stat and where it occurred. However, the best site for all of these free stats is FBRef, both sites mentioned are ones I frequent a lot.

If you google any player by name and added "FBRef" after it, it will show all the stats you need to know about said player. You will also see the definition of each stat by simply hovering over its name of it.

I know that was a long introduction but it was needed before we go ahead and analyze the picture shared by Liverpool fan, Josh Williams

Image source

Let's Break The Tweet Down

What Josh Williams is saying with this tweet is that Liverpool's defensive identity has declined. The reason he says that is because of two main things, the decline of Liverpool's high pressing and offside traps.

Let's break down the picture further:

Vertically, the number of offsides counted against Liverpool's opponents every 90 minutes. Liverpool's opponents suffer an average of 2 offsides per game. Horizontally, we see Liverpool's pressure in the final third. Here we notice that Liverpool has attempted pressure 35 times per game. So, what the fuck does that mean?

Deductive Reasoning

Before we go any further, we also learn how to look at things with an eye for deductive reasoning. What does that mean? Well, first, what it means is that whenever we hear or read something we need to start by defining what it is and whether it is an opinion, a hypothesis, a conclusion, or just a fact. Second, we also need to know the meaning behind such an opinion, a hypothesis, a conclusion, or a fact.

Applying this to Josh Williams' tweets, we learn that is a fact. There's no way to disagree with the fact that Liverpool was successful in winning offsides twice a match with 35 pressure attempts. So, it is fact. The next step is realizing what it means, and to do that, we have to break it down.

The first thing we need to realize is the date of the tweet. It's on the 14th of October. That means it came soon after Liverpool's loss to Arsenal and Liverpool's 7-1 win over Rangers. So, that's the fact and we know the context of it. Now, we move on to Josh's hypothesis.

What Josh is theorizing here is that these two things are the reason, or one of the main reasons, behind Liverpool's decline this season. Here is where we resort back to deductive reasoning to break down whether that theory is true or not. And that's what we will do next post. In fact, I invite all of you to apply deductive reasoning to break down Josh's hypothesis and whether it is true until then.