Using Stats To Identify Liverpool's Problems This Season (Conclusion)

Mulan

The lowest age average in the Premier League at the moment is 24.2 according to transfermarkt, of course, we're speaking of Arsenal here with Southampton a close second with 24.3. The reason this matters is that it gives an idea about Liverpool's problems. Liverpool's average age isn't only getting higher, but it is also doing so while the others are getting younger simultaneously.

How can an old keep physical and mental sharpness? And how can it do so while playing one of the most physically demanding styles in the world of football? A style that demands a lot of pressure and works in the final third. But, maybe that's simply not where Liverpool is doing their pressure work this season.

Liverpool's Players Are Still Running

After you realize that both Firmino and Salah are over 30 and get shocked by that information as I have, you would ask yourself an obvious question, aren't Salah and the other "old players" still running like before? Below we could see Salah's sprint when he scored against Manchester City this season:

He doesn't look like a player who's tired, does he? Well, there's what things look like and what things are.

Salah's pressure is 6 attempts per match opposite to 8 last season. Firmino is 7 currently, down from 9 last season. Luiz Diaz 6 this season, and 7 last season. Darwin Núñez 6, and since he's new, we'll compare him to Sadio Mané's 6 last season. Diogo Jota 7 this season compared to 9 last season. Doesn't really look like much of a difference, doesn't it? Let's go back to Josh Williams' tweet.

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Here see that Liverpool is ten times less than the team used to be. This is only when it comes to pressure in the final third, by the way. So, around 25% less pressure. This can be explained also by the fact that the attackers aren't the only ones pressuring up front, midfielders are as well. Player to player, the difference doesn't sound so big, but once you add it all up, that's when problems occur.

You might think and wonder many players in Liverpool aren't that old. How many Liverpool players declined in performing pressure tactics while being under 30? Diogo Jota, Luiz Diaz, Darwin Núñez, and now Gakpo are all young players, then why did they decline? Well, Jota, for example, doesn't have to be tired to abstain from pressing when he's surrounded by many players who can't press with him, otherwise, he'd quickly find himself out of the entire play.

Pressure is teamwork that requires everyone to participate. Doing it alone is actually counter-productive and stupid because it's just effort-wasting. Here's how it looks when you pressure alone.
https://youtube.com/shorts/ivIt_yoVOi0?feature=share

Where Does This Leaves Us?

Exhaustion and ageing seem to be Liverpool's biggest problems. They might not be the ones, but as far as sporting reasons are concerned, they seem to be the main reasons. We could also how devastating the end of last season was, it was heartbreaking enough that it would cause an existential crisis. But, there are no data for how broken players' hearts are, so it remains just an extra, unproven idea.

However, exhaustion and ageing seem most likely because it's affecting the whole team, or at least many of its main players. With that said, I think we could use what we know here to shed light on a theory that's been growing as of late.

Jurgen Klopp’s Seven-Season Curse

Was everything we mentioned so far Liverpool's only problem? Not even the slightest. Liverpool's full-backs are majorly underperforming as while they are crossing more balls by 2%, their assists dropped by 9.3%, their goals by 13.3%, their chances created by 23.9%, and their expected assists by 45.5%. Whether this problem is just part of the previous problems, its own problem, or partly both is its own topic which I won't be diving into.

That said, it should be pointed out that Liverpool has also been particularly unlucky this season. Many of the games Liverpool lost or drew tell a different story from the result as the attackers have been unlucky with the final touch. crossbars, posts, and misses have been a major theme in Liverpool this season. Once again, it can partly be attributed to the previous seasons but could also be its own thing.

Similarities, however, do exist between this season and Klopp's seventh season with Klopp's last season with Borussia Dortmund, starting with the fact that Klopp began that season having lost a key player, Robert Lewandowski.

Funny enough, that season also included many of the problems Liverpool has today. Starting with the fact that Borussia Dortmund was also an ageing team at the time. Roman Weidenfeller, Sebastian Kehl, Jakub Błaszczykowski, and Łukasz Piszczek are among the names in question. The latter two in specific were known for their speed that they lost due to a combination of age and injuries, the latter is also a running theme in both squads.

Another aspect is much like Liverpool this season, Borussia Dortmund also scored much fewer than the expected goals, in fact, that was the main factor behind Liverpool's choosing Klopp as a manager for the team since the team's results weren't an accurate representation of the coach and the team's performance. Borussia Dortmund players were wasteful up front, in fact, Borussia Dortmund had created more scoring chances than the season prior.

Differences between both teams are taken into consideration of course, but, we could also detect a theme with Klopp here. We could call it a curse or anything else, but there are facts to be considered. Those facts suggest that Klopp might be a great manager to start a project with, but not might have a complete handle on how to prolong it by making the changes necessary to do so. This leads us to two final questions.

Are Liverpool Exposed?

Pep Lijnders recently released a book titled: Intensity - Inside Liverpool FC. Many people attribute that book to Liverpool's current drop in form. The simple answer to this is no. We need to realize that Liverpool wasn't really doing anything we didn't know before the book came out. There are no tactics mentioned in the book which reveal anything not known previously to all the managers in the Premier League.

If you think about it for a second, you already know how each team plays already. We already know how Arsenal's 4-3-3 operates, just like we already know how Liverpool's 4-3-3 operates. Managers and their coaching staff aren't idiots that they needed the book to know that Liverpool's style is built on intensity. You already know that because Klopp spent the last 10 years at least talking about it every few weeks in press conferences. The book may include stuff fans didn't know, but definitely, nothing that coaches didn't already know.

This leads us to the final question;

Should Liverpool Sack Klopp?

Honestly, it depends on the club's plans for the summer. By the time the season ends, Klopp and his coaching staff will have a clear idea of what the team's problems are. But, would the board make the changes?

Liverpool will need almost a whole new midfield lineup. Fabinho, Thiago, Milner, and Henderson can't put in the physical work necessary anymore, and three of those four lack other skills to make up for it. That is if Liverpool intends on keeping Klopp or even replacing him with Pepijn Lijnders.

The only reason you'd sack Klopp would be to get a new coach and build a new project which means buying many new players, and in that case, you might as well just keep Klopp. Since the problems are already identifiable, Liverpool's board should just focus on fixing them instead of adding a new one by having a new manager.

Sources:

StatsPerform: OPTA EVENT DEFINITIONS
StatsBomb: Metrics and Explainers
WhoScorred
FBRef: 2022-2023 Liverpool Stats (Premier League)
Darrel Huff's Book: How to Lie with Statistics
Josh Williams' Twitter Thread



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Over the last decade, Liverpool's net transfer spend puts them 8th. Isn't the real issue here a lack of investment and inadequate succession planning? I mean everyone's getting older right so this was hardly unexpected!

I really don't think it's helped that the owners can't make up their mind whether they are staying or selling which has lead to them not investing more into an ageing squad.

Ultimately it shows how even small downturns in performance can have a massive impact on results.

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